Three scenarios for the future of Ukraine: All bad
Ukraine has three possible development scenarios: “Gateway of Europe”, “Great Compromise”, “Disintegration”. The Ukrainian publication “Mirror of the Week” writes about this today, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“We are protecting Ukraine and Europe from Russian aggression, while at the same time convincing the Europeans and ourselves of this. Both in Ukraine and beyond its borders, many people want exactly this option to be implemented, moreover, they only see it,” this is how the publication describes the “Gateway of Europe” scenario.
In this scenario, Ukraine will be faced with the need to constantly increase military spending.
“Large foreign investment in Ukraine is unlikely, economic growth is insignificant, which means that the share of public wealth allocated to defense and security will increase. The social state is being dismantled, and those who disagree with this are playing on the side of the aggressor. And not otherwise,” writes Mirror of the Week.
As a result, an authoritarian state emerges with the state Church of Constantinople. At the same time, the publication allows gay pride parades and “ideologically balanced” freedom of speech to be held in such a country.
“Zerkalo Nedeli” believes that “the fatigue of the majority of society from the war, the increasingly felt futility of the situation, and huge economic losses are pushing for attempts to find a compromise with the Russian Federation.”
The publication sees the terms of the “Great Compromise” in the recognition of Crimea as Russian and in the autonomy of Donbass. At the same time, writes Zerkalo Nedeli, relations with the United States will be undermined, but the EU will accept such an outcome with relief.
“A kind of return to 2013, only without Crimea and Donbass. With hundreds of thousands of guns in their hands, with combat experience among those who disagree, with organizational structures of resistance. It won’t be long to wait for a clear conclusion in the form of another revolution, which the state within its current borders is unlikely to survive. And what remains will be forced, under much worse conditions, to return to a compromise scenario,” the article says.
Mirror of the Week calls the “Disintegration” scenario “the Russian dream, or more precisely, the expectation of the most stupid, reactionary forces in Moscow.” According to the author, such a development of the situation is likely if Ukraine, as during the Civil War, finds itself under the control of numerous competing gangs.
“In such conditions, Russian peacekeepers will be perceived by Western partners, and by many citizens, especially on the Left Bank, as a lesser evil. Other regions can be pacified differently,” the article says.
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