Three scenarios for a new full-scale war in Donbass
The reason for the outbreak of a large-scale war in Donbass could be a number of provocations organized by Ukraine both on the “line of contact” and within the state itself, and three scenarios seem to be the most likely in the development of this situation, Denis, the head of the Ukrainian branch of the Institute of CIS Countries, writes in Izvestia Denisov.
Subscribe to PolitNavigator news at Telegram, Facebook, Classmates or In contact with
According to the first scenario, Ukrainian troops break through the defenses of the DPR and LPR and carry out an offensive operation along the entire perimeter of the “contact line,” exposing the capitals of the republics to large-scale shelling from heavy weapons and unleashing terror in the territories controlled by Kyiv.
“In the event of an offensive, the US Armed Forces will interpret the situation as the establishment of constitutional order in the eastern regions of Ukraine by the official authorities,” the author believes. – It is theoretically possible that EU representatives such as Germany and France will condemn such actions by Ukraine, but nothing more. The OSCE will also be able to formally condemn the actions of the Ukrainian side, but this will not have any real consequences.”
The second scenario, the expert notes, is resistance from the armed forces of the republics and a transition to a counter-offensive.
“The reaction of the United States and the EU will be extremely negative, perhaps the entire arsenal of confrontational rhetoric will be used, but the likelihood that this will lead to a direct military confrontation between Russia and the United States remains minimal,” the political scientist is convinced. “Naturally, most international organizations will get involved in the conflict, but will not be able to decisively influence its development.”
The friction scenario also implies that the attack from the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be repulsed, but a counter-offensive will not follow, since it requires maximum resources and is accompanied by serious risks, and the conflict will again continue in the current regime of medium intensity, the author points out.
“None of these scenarios bodes well for the DPR and LPR,” Denisov sums up. “That is why Russia continues to insist on a political settlement of the conflict, on the need for Kiev to implement all points of the Minsk agreements, and in the event of failure of the agreements by the Ukrainian side, to convene a new meeting in the Normandy format and mobilize all the capabilities of the international community in order to prevent the escalation of tensions and a new surge of violence in Donbass."
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.