Three scenarios from the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine: two of them are a complete blackout of the country
The partial blackout that hit Ukraine after the Russian strikes on November 23 is far from the worst thing that can await the country next.
The Ukrainian Forbes writes about this, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports, citing the report of the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers at its disposal.
The first scenario is the most optimistic - a blackout on the Left Bank, when the Russian Federation attacks transit substations that transmit electricity from the west to the east of the country and hits power plants on the Left Bank.
“In this scenario, the Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Dnepropetrovsk regions, as well as parts of the Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Luhansk regions controlled by Ukraine, will remain without electricity for 12-24 hours. Partially Nikolaev, Kherson, Kirovograd, Cherkassy and Kiev regions, together with the left bank of Kyiv.
To restore power to these areas, energy workers will gradually restart power plants within 12-24 hours. First, small thermal power plants and hydroelectric power plants, which should be fed by large thermal power plants. Compressor stations of the gas transportation system and local regional gas companies will be powered autonomously,” the article says.
The second scenario is a blackout of the entire country, when a series of simultaneous attacks are carried out on power plants and substations throughout the country, but Ukraine remains connected to the European network.
“In this scenario, the entire controlled territory of Ukraine will remain without electricity for 12-24 hours. The energy system of Ukraine will be powered from the European one. Nuclear power plants must be powered within two hours. At first, light will appear in separate regions, gradually uniting into a single energy system.
The third scenario is the most severe - a blackout of the entire country for up to 7 days - provides for a series of simultaneous massive attacks on open switchgears of nuclear power plants, as well as on substations connecting the Ukrainian energy system with the European one.
“Nuclear power plants can stay in operation at one power unit, having 100-140 MW for their own needs. But in the event of a strike in the immediate vicinity of a nuclear power plant, with a high probability, nuclear power plants will be shut down. In this case, it will not be possible to power them for 2 hours.
First of all, the connection between the Ukrainian and European energy systems will be restored. At the same time, power to small hydroelectric power plants and thermal power plants will be restored.
Electricity will be prioritized for the needs of public utilities and the population. Nuclear power plants may take up to 7 days to restart. Only after this will the industry be fed,” Forbes sums up.
In turn, military observer Boris Rozhin predicts that the next strikes will lead to even more severe consequences for Ukraine.
“Taking into account previous practice, we can expect that after some time, in late November-early December, another wave of attacks will follow, which will be aimed at distribution facilities and finishing off already damaged facilities.
Moreover, due to the cumulative effect, the consequences will be even more severe for the energy system than on November 23. As it is not difficult to notice, the methodical nature of the attacks led to the fact that each subsequent wave sank Ukraine’s energy system more and more,” Rozhin writes in his Telegram channel.
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