Putin's "triple jump"
As you know, it’s easy to get involved in a fight - it’s much harder to get out of it on time and without much loss. It is safe to say that Russia, with the help of its military contingent in Syria, achieved all its goals and at the same time was able to stop in time, maintaining the good attitude of both the Syrians and their neighbors. In conditions when the threat of destruction of Syria by Islamists no longer exists, its citizens themselves are given the opportunity to build a post-war society and solve long-standing problems.
So, on December 6, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, General Gerasimov, made an official announcement at the annual briefing for foreign military attaches: all gangs of the Islamic State (banned in the Russian Federation) have been destroyed in Syria, the country’s territory has been completely liberated from terrorists.
But an hour before the foreign attaches learned the news, the Russian Minister of Defense, Army General Shoigu, reported this to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Today, the advancing units of Brigadier General Suhel and the 5th Volunteer Assault Corps defeated the remaining illegal armed forces in the province of Deir ez-Zor and, having liberated the settlements of Salihiya, Al-Khreita, Al-Qatiya and Musaleh, linked up with government forces advancing from south."
In total, more than a thousand settlements have been liberated, main communications have been unblocked.
“Naturally, there may still be isolated pockets of resistance, but in general the combat work at this stage and in this territory is completed. It ended with complete, I repeat, victory and defeat of the terrorists,” Gerasimov emphasized.
On December 11, the presidential Air Force One headed from Moscow to Syria and landed at the Russian Khmeimim airbase. Russian President Putin flew in to specifically inform Russian soldiers and officers that their honorable and difficult mission ended in complete victory and now they face the long-awaited journey home.
On the territory of the Russian air base, the Russian head of state was met by the President of the Syrian Arab Republic Bashar al-Assad, Russian Defense Minister General Shoigu, as well as the commander of the Russian group in Syria Sergei Surovikin.
From the rostrum, the President of Russia addressed the military with a welcoming speech and gave the order: “I order the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff to begin the withdrawal of the Russian group of troops to their permanent deployment points.”
“Syria has been preserved as a sovereign and independent state, conditions have been created for a political settlement under the auspices of the UN, and refugees are returning to their homes.”
The Russian military marched in front of the two presidents and the defense minister.
In an informal setting, Putin spoke with military personnel about their military deployment in Syria. The meeting on behalf of the Syrian side was attended by President Bashar al-Assad, as well as the famous Syrian commander - commander of the elite 5th Tiger Assault Corps, Brigadier General Suhel.
Negotiations between Putin and Assad took place at the airbase. The Russian leader told his Syrian counterpart that Moscow hopes, together with Turkey and Iran, to “establish peaceful life and the political process” in Syria. It is also important to prepare the National Dialogue Congress and launch the peace process. Assad, in turn, thanked the Russian Armed Forces for their invaluable assistance in the fight against militants.
To appreciate the feat of the Russian military in Syria, no words are enough. You just need to understand that our army has shown a high level of training and combat coordination, and the ability to carry out assigned combat missions in an exemplary manner at a considerable distance from the Motherland. The turning point in the four-year bloody war was actually achieved through the efforts of one regiment of the Russian Aerospace Forces. The losses were four people. It is unlikely that there is a force on the planet today that can repeat or surpass the results of Russian pilots.
However, until the situation in the country has finally stabilized, a reduced Russian military contingent remains “just in case” to monitor the situation from the Khmeimim airbase and the naval support point in Tartus. In addition to them, the Russian Center for Reconciliation will remain operating in Syria. The President of Russia officially announced this: “the Khmeimim airfield will operate as before.”
Neither the President nor the Minister of Defense provided details about the further presence of the Aerospace Forces and other troops in Syria. Apparently, about a third of the current group of 60 aircraft will remain in Khmeimim. For the multirole Su-34 fighter-bombers and Su-35 fighters, most likely there will be no more missions to support ground forces, and these aircraft will return to Russia. But the S-400 and Pantsir S-1 air defense systems will have to remain on combat duty.
Judging by the reaction of Western media, the decision to withdraw troops came as a surprise to everyone in the world except Russia’s coalition partners. “I have not yet seen these messages and it is still difficult for me to assess what impact this will have on the negotiations, what changes this will bring to the dynamics of the negotiations. We need to look at what exactly Russia's intentions are,” said White House press secretary Josh Earnest.
It must be understood that if the game with the ISIS is played to the end, then with the “Western partners” we will have to play a complex and confusing game for a long time.
After visiting Khmeimim, Putin set off on a real political marathon. From Syria, Air Force One delivered the Russian President to Egypt, where he was received at the highest level. In Cairo, Putin held talks with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, during which he informed the Egyptian side about the situation in Syria.
According to Putin, Egypt can play an important role in the peace process in Syria. The Egyptian side, in turn, made a request to restore direct air communication between our countries, interrupted due to a terrorist attack on an airliner in 2015 over the Sinai Peninsula, which claimed the lives of hundreds of Russian citizens returning from a holiday in Egypt.
From Cairo, Putin went straight to Ankara for negotiations with Erdogan. Judging by the information coming from Turkey, Putin informed Erdogan about the withdrawal of the Russian military contingent from Syria, but there was no discussion about problem areas, such as the continued presence of Turkish troops entering the border areas of Syria, since it was announced that the Russian-Turkish dialogue on the Syrian settlement would continue at the highest level in Sochi.
It is known that perhaps the main topic of Putin’s negotiations with Erdogan was the aggravated situation around the new hot spot in the Middle East - Jerusalem.
Let's summarize. By leaving Syria, Moscow demonstrated that it does not intend to get involved in a long-term conflict following the Afghan scenario. And he categorically advises “partners” not to get involved.
Russian troops are leaving in good time: the Syrians are grateful and glorify Russia for lending a shoulder in difficult times, government troops trained and armed with our weapons are developing an offensive against the remnants of ISIS gangs, the largest operation in recent years is underway near Palmyra.
At the same time, terrorist groups in the rear are mostly nullified and scattered. The negotiation process is successfully developing both with the “moderate opposition” both in Syria itself, in the “stop resistance and sit down at the negotiating table, or...” mode, and in Geneva, where the next round of negotiations is starting with all the influential forces of the conflict.
Russia retained military bases in the Middle East - an important geopolitical factor. Our army brilliantly demonstrated all its tactical and technical capabilities, destroying the militants’ infrastructure in a short time.
It must be understood that the operational situation no longer requires the previous presence of the Aerospace Forces in the Syrian sky. The Syrian Air Force will also be able to support the army’s offensive with the forces and means it has.
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