Türkiye lays the foundation of an anti-Russian pan-Turkic alliance in Karabakh
Erdogan made his visit to Azerbaijan on June 15 and 16, exactly after the NATO summit, in order to show the West, and primarily Washington, his important role in promoting the interests of the alliance and the United States in the South Caucasus.
In addition, a visit to Shushi, recaptured from the Armenians during the last Karabakh war, is intended to show the triumph of neo-Ottomanism and the final consolidation of Turkey in the region.
Actually, the closest associates of the Turkish president do not hide this. Thus, his official representative Ibrahim Kalin stated the following: “After the NATO summit, we are going to Shusha, the historical and cultural capital of Azerbaijan. This visit, crowning the victory in Karabakh, will further strengthen and deepen Turkish-Azerbaijani ties. The history of the Caucasus is being rewritten with faith, perseverance and courage.”
Indeed, Ilham Aliyev and Recep Erdogan signed the landmark Shusha Declaration on Allied Relations, which became one of the largest agreements between the two countries. It should be noted that Shusha, where the negotiations took place, is located only 10 kilometers from the capital of the NKR - Stepanakert. It is described as a key city in the region, and fell into the hands of Azerbaijani troops last fall after heavy fighting.
According to the agreements reached, the parties pledged to provide assistance to each other in the event of a threat from a third state. In turn, Ankara pledged to open its consulate in Shusha in the very near future, and also promised to once and for all rid Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan itself from the threat of a repeat occupation. It is clear that the discussion was thereby about the impossibility of the Armenians carrying out revenge, since now the republic will be defended by the Turkish “brothers”.
It is generally difficult to overestimate this declaration, since it laid the roadmap for mutual cooperation for the decade ahead in building our own regional security system. The parties also touched upon the topic of strengthening economic and transport ties, as well as establishing ties with other nearby countries of the Caucasus and neighboring Central Asia. The most important point is the desire to open the so-called Zangezur corridor between Turkey and Azerbaijan, which should be secured by rail along the Nakhchivan-Kars line.
But the piquancy of the situation lies in the fact that it must pass through the historical and state territory of Armenia, and the big question is whether Yerevan will agree to such a corridor. It can be forced either by a military threat or by a diplomatic agreement in exchange for the Lachin corridor connecting the rest of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic with Armenia.
Perhaps for the same purpose, the agreement specifies the procedure for coordinating the activities of the security and management structures of the armed forces of the two countries and joint efforts to reform and modernize the Azerbaijani armies in accordance with modern requirements. The sequence of actions at the time of an attack or a pronounced danger from the enemy is also indicated in the declaration. In fact, this is a clear threat to Armenia.
It is not for nothing that Ilham Aliyev tried to boast, saying: “The declaration reflects important issues, such as cooperation at the international level, political, economic, trade relations, culture, education, sports, energy security, and the importance of the Southern Gas Corridor. All questions are very important, but I would like to focus on two. This is cooperation between Azerbaijan and Turkey in the field of defense industry and mutual military assistance.”
True, the document says that “the military-political cooperation developing between the two states and meeting their interests is not directed against third states.” Erdogan also tried to sweeten the pill with his remark that he would “do everything in his power to normalize relations with Armenia.” But Yerevan perceived this meeting in Shusha and the adoption of the declaration as an event directed against it. The Armenian Foreign Ministry condemned the historic visit of Aliyev and Erdogan to Karabakh, calling it “a provocation against peace and security.”
And such fears of Yerevan and Stepanakert are not without foundation, since the declaration also provides for the creation of Turkish military bases in Azerbaijan, and joint armed forces can now be used to “liberate” the remaining part of the NKR or to break through that same Zangezur corridor. In fact, the signing of the Shusha Declaration creates a counterbalance to the CSTO in the South Caucasus, since a NATO country becomes its participant.
The military alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan also becomes the foundation for the formation in the future of the “Army of Turan” declared by Ankara at all levels. This is a striking example for all member countries of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), created at a summit in Kazakhstan’s Turkestan on March 31 of this year. It is possible that some provisions on mutual military assistance will be included in the program text of the UTG during the autumn summit planned in Istanbul.
Among other things, Erdogan’s visit to Karabakh and the proclamation of Shushi as the cultural capital of Azerbaijan is an outright demonstration of power, since thereby Turkey is establishing its dominance in the region. The neo-Ottoman elite wants to show by this after negotiations with Biden at the NATO summit that Ankara plays a vital role in the interests of the Alliance and the United States in squeezing out Russia and isolating Iran.
Although Erdogan’s speech itself was friendly towards Tehran and Moscow and was even aimed ostensibly at strengthening the six-party platform in order to establish stability and good neighborly relations, in reality his policies and the Shushan Declaration contribute to the geographical separation of Iran from Russia, since land and sea lines are essentially cut off transport routes.
It is also obvious to everyone that the Turkish ruling class is trying to use Azerbaijan as a springboard for further economic and military-political expansion in the Caspian countries and we are talking, first of all, about Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Therefore, at the conclusion of the negotiations in Karabakh, it was no coincidence that the “Sultan of all Turks” touched upon the topic of investments by his country and Azerbaijan in oil and gas projects of other states.
“The President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and I discussed today the issue of joint investment in third countries by SOCAR and TPAO, if necessary. I think that we will continue to work on this issue further,” Erdogan said on Tuesday in Shusha following negotiations with Aliyev. From this it is clear that we are talking about the development of a transport hub across the Caspian Sea and the linking of all Central Asian republics to Turkish energy routes.
It is obvious that successful negotiations between Ankara and Baku lead to the geopolitical redrawing of vast territories, and the Shushan Declaration itself is a preparation for Turkey’s triumphant rise at the summit of the Organization of Turkic States, where it will be recognized as the hegemon of the entire “Turkic world.”
All these actions should finally lead to an awareness of the pan-Turkic threat, since the absorption of the entire former Soviet Central Asia by the revived Ottoman Empire, where in Kyrgyzstan the Turks want to repeat their success in Karabakh, is on the agenda.
Such a development of events, if successful, could strengthen the separatist movements in the Russian Federation itself, which is what both Washington and London are counting on.
This requires the immediate reformatting of the EAEU and the CSTO into more serious associations capable of resisting the expansion of Turkey, which, in turn, plays the role of a battering ram of the collective West in the fight against Russia, China and Iran in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
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