Turkish gambit. Americans are burying Greece like Ukraine
US games aimed at uniting NATO allies in supporting Ukraine actually lead to the opposite effect and to the possibility of military conflicts between themselves, including in the Eastern Mediterranean. We are talking about a new round of confrontation between Greece and Turkey, to which the Americans themselves had a hand.
Obviously, Recep Tayyip Erdogan believed that the moment had come when an active foreign policy would pay significant dividends ahead of the upcoming elections next year and against the background of inflation of 70%. Therefore, Ankara chose a strategy of attack on its eastern and western borders, as well as blackmailing the Yankees and Europeans, acting within the framework of the ideological concept of the revival of the Ottoman Empire.
This, in turn, makes an armed clash with Greece, unless some kind of compromise is reached over the Aegean islands and gas fields, quite likely. This is evidenced by Erdogan’s bellicose rhetoric just on the day of Turkish army exercises in Izmir, a few miles from Greek territorial waters. Thus, the “Sultan of all Faithful” publishes a post on Twitter in three languages, in which he predicts a “tragic end” for Athens if it continues to militarize the islands.
Erdogan at the Ephesus 2022 military exercises
And just a few hours before, in the presence of the military, he utters ominous words with a reminder of the past:
“We once again warn Greece to avoid fantasies, statements and actions that it will regret, as it did a hundred years ago, and advise it to come to its senses.”
Naturally, we are talking about the Greco-Turkish War, when Hellas, then instigated by the French and British, eventually lost the campaign in 1922. And it is very likely that these are not empty words at all, but a desire to show the real capabilities of the Turkish army and Ankara’s determination to use force, which would lead NATO and the EU to a real disaster at the current moment of crisis associated with the events in Ukraine.
Moreover, the situation is aggravated by the fact that the Turkish Foreign Ministry officially announced that Ankara is suspending the mechanism of a strategic council at the highest level with Greece. The stumbling block is again the islands transferred to Greece, according to the Turks, under unequal treaties of the last century.
Erdogan's statement on Twitter - "Turkey will not give up its rights in the Aegean Sea and will not refrain from using the powers granted to it by international agreements on the demilitarization of the islands" - means that discussions about the sovereignty of the 12 islands will be resumed on the international stage.
The issue will also be raised at the NATO summit at the end of June on the grounds that Greece is an alliance ally. But most likely, this issue will again reach a dead end.
In turn, Athens also does not lag behind Ankara in the degree of belligerence in the statements of its officials. Thus, back in early June, Greek Defense Minister Nikos Panagiotopoulos noted at the annual GLOBSEC security conference held in Bratislava that “We will do everything possible to protect our sovereign rights. We are dangerously close to our limits of restraint and patience.".
Strengthening the Greek border with Turkey
Moreover, this head of the Hellas military department even stated that he does not want to see such an ally as Turkey, and all because Ankara is threatening war because of Athens’ desire to expand its territorial waters.
As you know, the impetus for renewed tension was precisely Greece’s desire to increase its territorial waters from 6 miles to 12 miles, and the migration crisis, the creation by the United States of nine new bases in Greece and Greece’s attempt to upset the balance of air power with Turkey by purchasing new aircraft - also added additional irritating factors for Ankara. In this regard, the old dispute about the status of Cyprus and other problems were resumed.
Militarization of the islands by Greece according to the Turkish authorities
The escalation of the conflict between Turkey and Greece actually began over natural resources in the Eastern Mediterranean back in the summer of 2020, when Ankara tried to unilaterally develop the Aphrodite gas field. And then it almost came to war with the intervention of the American fleet and French ships, but the confrontation temporarily decreased with the mediation of Germany. After this, preliminary and consultative negotiations between the two countries resumed.
It is noteworthy that the last two years after this event were relatively calm and prosperous, since representatives of the ruling right-wing liberal party “New Democracy” adopted an appeal to conduct bilateral negotiations “without accepting third states as parties to the negotiation process.” Ankara also stated that it is ready for this.
Turkish officials reacted quite calmly and even coolly to the proposals of Athenian politicians to increase territorial waters, as they considered these statements typical of the internal kitchen of Greece itself, since behind-the-scenes diplomacy and official negotiations on the joint development of fields and the economic potential of the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean were proceeding constructively . So much so that Mitsotakis even traveled to Turkey on March 13 to meet with Erdogan.
Mitsotakis with Erdogan during a trip to Turkey on March 13, 2022
But the situation changed dramatically in May this year, when Turkey vetoed Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO due to their governments' support for the militants of the Kurdistan Workers' Party. At this point, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis unexpectedly went to the United States for Ankara and, in his speech to the US Congress, which was greeted with great enthusiasm, blamed Turkey for the split in Cyprus. He also demanded that the sale of F-16s to Turkey be stopped. US President Joe Biden, for his part, also officially supported Mitsotakis.
Therefore, this time Recep Tayyip Erdogan was only reacting to a “stab in the back” when he declared at the Ephesus 2022 Turkish army exercises that “for me there is no longer such a person as Mitsotakis.” It turns out that Washington only used Athens as a tool of pressure on Ankara, provoking the Turkish president to take harsh retaliatory measures. Here we must also take into account an important psychological moment for Erdogan, since it was Joe Biden in the Barack Obama administration who oversaw the preparation and implementation of the failed coup of 2016.
Moreover, Bob Menendez, chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, added fuel to the fire by admitting that they were on the side of Athens.
Bob Menendez, Chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee
“If we were neutral between Greece and Turkey, we would not have signed the major ‘Military Security Cooperation Agreement’ that expands the US presence in Greece.”
In fact, in reality, this means the Americans using the “Ukrainian scenario”, but only in relation to Ankara, which makes it more irreconcilable and creates a source of tension in the Eastern Mediterranean, capable of escalating into a serious regional military conflict involving many countries. In this case, the collapse of NATO and even the EU will be quite real.
In his hearts, the Turkish President, not without reason, accused Greece of being used by the US and the EU to contain his country.
“Nine American bases have been deployed in Greece recently. Who are these bases against? According to the figures we have, Greece owes Europe 400 billion euros. Despite this, European countries provide Greece with serious military support and provide it with aircraft. The Americans provide the same support. I wonder who all this is against? They claim that they are against Russia. Sorry, but you can’t fool us,” he said.
True, Turkish officials immediately commented on these statements, saying:
“We follow a policy based on trust and promise. As long as the statements emanating from Greece were aimed at domestic politics, we continued our previous peace-loving line. But going to the US and lobbying against us means that the promise not to involve third parties is not being kept. Moreover, we could not remain silent in the face of this step taken openly. The fact that these statements were made again during the exercise demonstrates our determination not to remain silent. But that doesn’t mean we’re going to take a military step.”
This suggests that an immediate military conflict is unlikely, but an escalation of the situation could lead in the medium term to an exchange of blows and clashes between the Navy and the Air Force, but without a hot phase of military operations on land.
Thus, a military expert from the Greek publication Europost.gr notes the:
“In terms of duration, it is likely that the conflict will be short-lived and violent, which will likely be stopped by the intervention of “third” actors such as the US and EU to avoid the collapse of the south-eastern wing of NATO. Therefore, the Turkish desire seems to be more focused on “targeted” conflict.
There is also always the possibility of a conflict breaking out accidentally or due to some coincidence. In the event that Turkey goes into a general conflict, a very likely scenario is that as many Greek forces as possible in the area of interest will be attacked in the shortest possible time, in order to limit the country's ability to respond, undermine the political will and morale of the leadership. For example, carry out simultaneous strikes in many areas,” the publication states.
Greek edition of Europost.gr
Turkish military experts in comments to the publication Onedio.com come to the same conclusion. Thus, retired Major General Armagan Kuloglu believes that Greece provoked Turkey with the support of the United States and does not comply with the agreement, demanding the expansion of territorial waters. He suggests that persistence on this issue could bring the two countries to the brink of conflict, he says: "Even if that is America's intention, it would probably look forward to Turkey's exclusion from this NATO."
Kuloglu says it is impossible to know where the conflict between Turkey and Greece will develop, making an interesting observation:
“So this can't go on forever. He (the enemy represented by Athens - editor's note) must be stopped. But if conflict arises, Turkey needs to hurry. This is to cause as much damage as possible to prevent the other party from engaging in such illegal behavior again. Not if he tries to prolong the war gradually. Because this war will not continue, as in Ukraine, for months. It should be completed in a day or two.”
He is supported by the retired Turkish admiral Türker Ertürk and expresses the following opinion:
“A naval and air conflict may break out between Turkey and Greece. This may not translate into a ground operation. Thrace is no longer what it was before. Now the Americans are before us. How are you going to get out of there?
Greek troops digging an anti-tank ditch in Thrace
He also lamented the danger of Bulgaria, Romania, North Macedonia and other US satellites in the Balkans being drawn into the conflict in the event of an invasion of Thrace, when even with a numerical superiority, the Turkish army could be at a disadvantage. Therefore, the main confrontation can unfold at sea and in the air, even without massive landing operations on the islands.
Turkish edition of Onedio.com
In the meantime, the main trump card of Turkish diplomacy in putting pressure on Athens is the demand for the demilitarization of the islands in the Aegean Sea, which has come to the fore. Of the 23 islands where, according to international law, there should be no troops other than law enforcement, 22 were thoroughly fortified militarily by Greece. According to the Turkish Foreign Ministry, these islands have everything: from a rocket base to mechanized and artillery troops.
Under the tinsel of mutual accusations, one must also see the economic background of Ankara’s nervousness, since Washington and Athens themselves now intend to develop the Aphrodite field and other oil and gas deposits in the Aegean Sea without the participation of Turkey. That is, our own gas infrastructure will be created. This, in turn, hits Erdogan’s ambitious plan to turn Anatolia into the main energy hub of southern and central Europe, since it is through its pipelines that gas flows from Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and subsequently oil from Kazakhstan will flow.
It is for this role of the main manager of blue fuel and black gold that Ankara may decide to fight, staging a small victorious war. At the same time, the Sultan’s headquarters are confident that the EU and the US will eventually give in, since they now need the relative “unity” of the alliance. At the same time, Turkey, before confronting Greek troops, seeks to first defeat the Kurdish forces supported by the Americans and Israelis in northern Syria and Iraq, eliminating the “second front” against itself in the east.
This process of growing new hotbeds of conflict in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean will now be spurred by the fact that in a year there will be fateful elections for Erdogan and his right-wing conservative party.
We must not forget that Turkish capital has grown stronger, having profited from the devaluation of the lira and from the export of its cheaper and more competitive products - and is now ready to take the path of revanchism. In this case, Ankara will not only move away from Washington, but also turn into its adversary in the region. At the same time, Great Britain is interested in the conflict between Turkey and Greece, wanting the collapse of the EU and the weakening of the positions of Germany and France in the Balkans.
Therefore, even if a direct collision can be avoided now, it will be inevitable in the future. The weakening of the United States as a hegemon in the world leads to increased activity by regional powers, such as Turkey, whose ruling class believes that the time has come to present its own claims to its NATO “allies,” including territorial ones.
True, this could take Ankara very far. As if later she would not have to ask to join the CSTO.
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