Turkmenistan is playing a dangerous game by facilitating NATO penetration into the Caspian Sea and Central Asia

Türkiye is increasingly reorienting the information and transport flows of the former Soviet Central Asian republics towards itself.

All this is being done within the framework of a single geopolitical and geostrategic project of Turkic integration, and an example of this is the latest agreement between Ankara, Baku and Ashgabat on the supply of more than one million tons of Turkmen oil per year, bypassing Russian routes.

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The point is that on September 13, the Azerbaijani state company SOCAR and the Swiss-Dutch company Vitol Group came to an agreement on the transportation of hydrocarbons starting in October of this year. SOCAR plans to transport Turkmen oil through the Caspian Sea to Baku, and then it will go through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BDT) oil pipeline.

The length of this pipeline is 1768 kilometers and runs through the territory of Azerbaijan (443 km), Georgia (249 km) and Turkey (1076 km). Currently, oil produced from the Azerbaijani Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli and Shah Deniz fields is transported through it, but this is clearly not enough to fully load the BDT, since the throughput capacity reaches 1,2 million barrels of oil per day.

_{It can be confidently assumed that from the very beginning the BDT was built by the Turks for the future, with the goal of turning the flow of oil from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan along this particular route through Turkey. At the moment we are seeing the implementation of such a scenario. As a result of such a separate agreement with Ashgabat, the total volumes of oil transportation along the Russian route through the port of Novorossiysk will decrease by 50%, namely from 160 to 80 million tons per month.}

Such losses will immediately have a negative impact on revenues to the Russian budget and will exacerbate competition for Turkmen oil between Russia and Azerbaijan. It should be taken into account that Baku, pushed by Ankara, is already increasing gas transportation to the EU through the new Turkish gas pipeline system TANAP, which is a serious competitor to the similar Russian gas transmission system GAZP.MM.

Azerbaijan acts here as a mediator, negotiator and transshipment transport hub for Turkey’s pumping of minerals from Central Asia, which will flow to Western markets through Erdogan’s “safe hands”. The problem is that such a turnaround using the example of Turkmen oil will become an attractive example for the ruling elite of Kazakhstan, which has long nurtured similar plans to create alternative transport routes bypassing Russia.

The presidential administration of Turkmenistan can now slyly refer and nod to the Swiss-Dutch company Vitol Group and say that this is a purely business deal of an independent foreign company extracting local oil in order to increase profits. But we must understand that without the political will of Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, who personally participates in the discussion of such fateful decisions, this agreement would not have existed.

_{Just recently, Ashgabat, under the influence of events in Afghanistan, where the puppet pro-American regime collapsed and the Taliban took over, swung towards Beijing and, in the battle between different powers for the large domestic gas field Galkynysh, gave preference to Chinese state-owned companies. This decision was also facilitated by the July visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, during which the Turkmen leadership was provided with security guarantees against external threats and advised not to speed up the processes of Turkic integration.}

But despite this and the country’s officially declared neutral status, this former Soviet Central Asian republic is firmly moving towards rapprochement with Turkey. Moreover, this deal can be called a Turkmen gift to Erdogan and the forerunner of the autumn Istanbul summit of the Organization of Turkic States as a new integration association, the economic basis of which is precisely these energy and transport projects, which contradict the interests of Russia and China.

The pro-Western elites of the former Soviet Central Asia now clearly understand that Ankara and Baku are fulfilling the global tasks set to them by the United States and Great Britain to geopolitically reorient the region and create an economic and energy alternative to the EAEU and the “One Belt, One Road” concept. Moreover, this is an open attempt to destroy the bridge connecting Russia and the EAEU with the PRC.

It is these circumstances that explain the double-dealing position of the Turkmen leadership, aimed at maintaining the Western vector in its foreign policy. As if it wasn’t enough for Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, another such gas pipeline project, TAPI, lobbied by Washington and Brussels, which was supposed to redirect Turkmen gas through Afghanistan to Pakistan and India, has already collapsed due to the Taliban coming to power.

_{But Ashgabat must be aware that with such actions it opposes itself not only to Moscow and Beijing, but also to Tehran, which was previously friendly. After all, the contradictions between these leading powers of Eurasia and Turkey will only grow, and Iran is clearly against consolidating Erdogan’s positions in the Caspian region, which is already being carried out through the Azerbaijani protectorate.}

Literally the day before the conclusion of this deal between Ankara, Baku and Ashgabat, a special press conference was held in Tehran by Iranian Foreign Minister Said Khatibzadeh, at which he protested against joint exercises in the Caspian Sea by special forces of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Pakistan. We are talking about the “Three Brothers 2021” maneuvers, which clearly contradict the convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea, adopted on August 12, 2018.

Special forces of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan before the start of the Three Brothers 2021 exercises

Said Khatibzade noted in his speech that “The Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea has completely clarified this issue. The five littoral states have agreed that the military presence of countries other than these five countries is illegal.” According to him, this issue is being discussed at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic and is connected with the fact that its main provision, approved by all coastal powers in order to prevent NATO from penetrating the Caspian Sea, has been violated.

Video about the “Three Brothers” exercise

_{It is noteworthy that these international exercises also ended at the moment when such an agreement on the supply of one million tons of Turkmen oil appeared. That is, Azerbaijan and Turkey reinforced their right to the resources of neighboring countries and their transportation across the Caspian Sea through a demonstration of their military force. And this works not only to militarize this inland sea, with the participation of foreign countries, but can also change the balance of power not in favor of Iran and Russia.}

In this case, Turkmenistan clearly played along with Turkey’s expansionist policy and provided its resources, which became the justification and pretext for Ankara to further increase its presence both in the Caspian Sea and in the region as a whole. Such a game smells bad and could ultimately backfire for Ashgabat if tensions rise and the situation worsens, and violation of promises made to the Celestial Empire will be assessed accordingly.

I am more than confident that Iran, Russia and China will now take the necessary measures to neutralize such a threat posed by a NATO country to Central Asia, especially against the backdrop of Erdogan’s latest statement to the UN regarding the current status of Crimea.