Kyiv has enough resources for a month of war, terrorist attacks could be used
Yesterday, a certain adviser to Avakov, Zoryan Shkiryak, announced the possibility of terrorist attacks on the territory of Ukraine. Considering that Kyiv and several other cities have been “mined” by telephone for the second week now, this is natural. The development and escalation of the conflict requires new victims. This was the case in Syria, when the conflict began to slowly subside - one and a half thousand people were killed at a time.
Remember the “terrorist attack” in Dnepropetrovsk before the Euro? Which city is Dnipro most similar to? That's right - to Kyiv. Who do you think organized these explosions and why instantly, within 10-15 minutes, armored personnel carriers appeared on the streets? What were you preparing for? That's right - they were practicing possible terrorist attacks in the capital. So to speak, they were preparing for surprise. We conducted exercises. Therefore, if the adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs said that there will be terrorist attacks, they cannot but happen.
Their goal? Expansion and deepening of the conflict. The task of outside forces in Ukraine is not the formation of a government, or the removal of a “dictator” - the task is simple: the formation of a zone of instability on the border of Russia and Europe. That is why terrorist attacks on the territory of Ukraine can pursue two goals - “tightening” the screws, violent mobilization after it, and expanding the conflict zone.
We can certainly say that the conflict zone will expand. This needs to be understood: the fighting will move to the territory of Ukraine in one form or another. You need to put aside panic and try to prepare for them.
The war will end anyway
It will end sooner or later. The Ukrainian government can contribute to this. Already today, Finance Minister Alexander Shlapak said that from August 1, the military may be left without wages. Yatsenyuk's resignation on July 24 will not contribute in any way to the emergence of money. The IMF tranche is planned only in September. There is no money anymore. Civil servants have already been sent on vacation at their own expense.
That is, Kyiv has another month of war, but Ukraine’s forces are already running out of steam. The incompetent command brought about 5 thousand people into the “cauldron”. How many died and how many survived is still not clear. A new stage of mobilization has been announced, which requires additional expenses, since it is one thing to bring a person to the military registration and enlistment office, another thing is to dress him, put on shoes, feed him, give him a helmet - this requires money, and in total they plan to mobilize about 20 thousand people from Ukraine.
In addition, they need to conduct a fighter course - who to teach, who to remember. This is also time and money. The theft of armored vehicles from Ukrainian factories will also not contribute to the strengthening of the group, especially since every day in the area of the civil war soldiers are killed, equipment is damaged and, of course, planes are shot down from time to time.
The only way out is the supply of weapons (secret or overt) from the United States and partners, up to the supply of old Soviet equipment from Romania and Poland. But this is to force Russia to answer, also secretly or openly.
American military advisers are so American. There were enough of them in Georgia - did it help this country? Does this help Ukraine? Hardly. Advice is advice, but the outcome of the clash lies not in the headquarters, but on the battlefield. How can you fight if you don’t even get paid?
The goal is chaos
But the worse, the better. For USA. That is why not a single piece of evidence has yet been presented about the destruction of the airliner by the militia. The opposite is presented, in response - only accusations.
That is why the Makhnovshchina in the ATO areas is also needed by the United States. And that means it will be. Probably, US advisers will also begin to advise in this direction. There is growing indignation at the command of the so-called. ATO among all kinds of volunteers and ordinary military personnel. The National Guard, according to our information, is increasingly acting as an independent fighting unit, with little or no subordination to command. And why obey those who, for the sake of meaningless statements about war with Russia, and, therefore, the need to close the border, are leading thousands of soldiers into an outright trap?
Therefore, we can predict increased deintegration of the various military organizations of the ATO forces, which were previously disunited, their independent actions, which will develop into Makhnovshchina, and therefore, expand territorially and not necessarily towards territories controlled by the militia.
It is here, it seems to us, that the conflict will inevitably expand to other territories of the country, predicted by many experts.
The army and ATO forces will begin to have very serious problems from the moment the weather gets colder. Don’t think that they won’t be able to fight – this war will simply require even greater costs. It’s hard to say how long the ATO forces will be able to hold out. The situation is such that they can collapse at any moment, or they can last for months. This situation strongly depends on the political situation in Kyiv itself, which will sharply worsen over the course of the week. With the resignation of Yatsenyuk, the country is entering a zone of turbulence. New parliamentary elections are coming, which in war conditions is similar to sabotage operations behind enemy lines. A big political quarrel begins, which can completely destroy the ATO forces. During the period of fighting for seats in parliament, for example, it will be extremely difficult to conceal the real state of affairs in the combat zone, as was the case before.
At the same time, there will be economic consequences of association with the EU, extreme gas shortages, the problem of which cannot be solved during the election campaign - essentially, during the transition period. Therefore, the heating season will be disrupted and a humanitarian catastrophe may begin.
It is difficult to imagine that Yatsenyuk does not know this. Most likely, he merged... He escaped.
Consequently, things are very bad. How long can the army hold out during a humanitarian catastrophe without support is a rhetorical question...
So, we are in a zone of increased turbulence. Where it will take us out of it is impossible to say. Everything can turn upside down at any moment, including in the military sphere. Now you can expect ANYTHING.
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