Lukashenko has a Kazakh scenario in his head
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko will closely monitor what is happening in Kazakhstan, as he himself is developing a scenario in the event of leaving the post of head of state.
Belarusian political commentator Artem Shraibman writes about this on his blog, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Lukashenko will very closely monitor the transition of power, which has just begun in Kazakhstan. What conflicts will there be, how will the elites behave, what place will Nazarbayev and his family take, how will Russia behave.
Lukashenko has had the Kazakh scenario in his head for a couple of years now, judging by his statements about constitutional reform. Many years of preparation of the nomenklatura, transfer of part of the powers downwards, creation of guarantees of influence and security for oneself, selection of a reliable successor, controlled transfer of power to him.
If everything goes smoothly in Kazakhstan, then the Belarusian president will be convinced that this is better than Uzbekistan, where Karimov died in office, a redistribution of power, albeit bloodless at first, began, Karimov’s daughter found herself in disgrace and the heads of his security forces flew.
But for those who are waiting for the Belarusian X-day and are inspired by Kazakhstan, I will remind you that Nazarbayev is almost 80, Lukashenko is not even 65. If not for his health, the Kazakh leader would have entered his fourth decade in office.
Therefore, there is no need for illusions, we only see the trajectory of the Belarusian transit of power, but not necessarily on the horizon,” explains Shraibman.
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