Moscow has little time left to deal with Chisinau
Transnistria can return to Moldova only under the conditions of a complete reset of the latter on Russia’s terms. Political scientist Semyon Uralov writes about this on his Facebook using the example of the current gas problems of both countries, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“There is one gas knot of contradictions that has haunted Chisinau for many years - the gas debts of the rebellious Moldovan republic of Transnistria. Transnistria consumes gas from the same pipe as Moldova, but Tiraspol on the domestic market sets prices around $70 per thousand cubic meters, and Chisinau pays about $240. The debt is formally “hung” on Moldova, but in fact Transnistria owes it. In total, Moldova owes more than 6 billion dollars.
Chisinau does not recognize Tiraspol as a subject, and Tiraspol, in turn, does not recognize debts,” writes Uralov.
He names two ways to solve the gas problem: either return the PMR to Moldova, or recognize its independence. The path of autonomy for Transnistria within Moldova, which is proposed by President Igor Dodon, according to Uralov, is impossible.
“Autonomy is impossible for objective reasons. I leave behind ideological motivations such as the referendum on unification with Russia held in the PMR and the Pridnestrovians’ rejection of Moldovan nationalism and Romanian unionism. Autonomy on Chisinau’s terms is impossible for political-economic reasons,” writes Uralov.
He justifies the impossibility of autonomy for three reasons. Firstly, Transnistria has already formed its own national elite. Secondly, the national elites of the PMR control the main thing – the issue of money, on which the financial and industrial group “Sheriff” is based. Thirdly, Moldova, unlike the PMR, has been in a permanent political crisis for the last 15 years.
“Therefore, no matter how “pro-Russian” President Dodon is, no matter what autonomy plans are invented in Chisinau, Pridnestrovie will remain a sovereign state for absolutely objective reasons,” the political scientist sums up.
As a result, in his opinion, Russia pays the gas debts of both Chisinau and Tiraspol without receiving significant economic or political effects in return.
“The only workable option is the return of the PMR to Moldova, subject to the reboot of the Moldovan statehood project. Either in the format of the Moldavian Confederation, or in new union forms of statehood. Moreover, it is in Russia’s interests to force a reboot with a reboot of Moldova. Otherwise, in five years, debts to Moscow will exceed $10 billion and will eventually have to be written off,” writes Uralov.
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