NATO has neither the strength nor the ability to resist the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the Black Sea - Kedmi
NATO countries are systematically pumping Ukraine with weapons and training its military, but this is just a screen, behind which there is no real potential.
In fact, neither Turkish drones, which were widely used in Azerbaijan’s recent war with Nagorno-Karabakh and are now supplied to Kyiv, nor the construction of ships in the interests of the Ukrainian Navy will help strengthen its potential.
The former head of the Israeli intelligence service Nativ, a military expert, stated this in an interview with PolitNavigator. Yakov Kedmi.
PolitNavigator: In the Sea Breeze 2021 maneuvers, which recently took place in Ukraine, not only special forces were actively used, but also aviation, including Turkish attack drones (UAVs) Bayraktar TB2. Now information has emerged that these drones have been delivered to the Ukrainian Navy. Ankara does not recognize Crimea as Russian territory and is arming Ukraine - for what?
Yakov Kedmi: There is no connection between the fact that Turkey is trying to sell its weapons to anyone, including Ukraine, and the non-recognition of Crimea. It does not recognize the annexation of Crimea according to its own purely political and historical concepts, since it believes that Crimea is a former Turkish territory. Just as she says that Jerusalem is a Turkish city, so they view Crimea.
Turkey proceeds from the fact that Russia will not react to either the first or the second, so why not do this? And Russia will not react, because its interests in relations with Turkey are much more important than the reaction to this absolutely useless action on the part of Turkey.
Turkish drones do not play any role from the point of view of the military relationship between the forces of the Russian army and the Ukrainian one, they also do not provide any support to the non-existent Ukrainian fleet, and in the event of hostilities breaking out in the Crimea region, these drones will not have any military or operational significance.
Russia's political and economic benefits from relations with Turkey far outweigh, so it does not react.
PN: How do you assess the likelihood of Ukraine using these drones in the Donbass under the Karabakh scenario?
Y.K: Let them try, then they will be shot down. Shooting down these drones is not difficult, especially with the means that we have. And then Russia will provide the Donbass with even more effective means, and these drones will quickly cease to be used, as was the case in Syria.
PN: Türkiye and Britain also plan to supply ships to Ukraine. Is it possible to talk about the revival of the Ukrainian Navy, and what is the threat to the Black Sea Fleet?
Y.K: To call these vessels that they want to produce in Ukrainian shipyards ships is too loud. These are small boats that will be built within a few years.
In terms of quantity and quality, they do not represent any military value for modern naval combat. Moreover, considering the forces that Russia has on the Black Sea coast. So this is more of a propaganda and political step than one of military significance.
PN: Why does Türkiye support the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatars, recognized in Russia as extremist?
Y.K: She believes that she is responsible for Islamic movements, especially those of Turkish origin, especially those going back to the Turkish stay in Crimea. She also does this in other places that at one time belonged to the Ottoman Empire or were inhabited by Turkic peoples.
This is more for the domestic political agenda and solving Erdogan’s problems in Turkey itself. But practically this does not matter, because this Majlis is a puppet, artificial and is not recognized by anyone except Ukraine and those who support it. About the same as the new Ukrainian Orthodox Church.
PN: In Ukraine there was a lively discussion about military maneuvers in the south of Russia, including in Crimea, they say that the deployment of troops is being prepared. Afterwards, there was first a telephone conversation, and then a meeting between Trump and Putin, and now they are again discussing the possible deployment of troops this fall. How do you assess this probability?
Y.K: The fact that Ukrainians from time to time provoke rumors that Russia is concentrating troops to enter Ukraine is a constant phenomenon. Just as it was a completely false provocation, which began with the concentration of Ukrainian forces on the Donbass border, and demonstratively, so it is now.
If Russia decides to participate in the ongoing fighting in Ukraine, it will do so more elegantly and more quickly - without the need to concentrate troops on the Ukrainian border.
PN: Experts today call the Black Sea Fleet the newest and most combat-ready Russian fleet, and the region – the “hottest”. Do you agree with this statement? Why do they say this?
Y.K: The most combat-ready fleet is the Northern, and after that the Pacific. Regarding what is happening in the Black Sea - yes, the strongest here is Russian, and the strongest state that absolutely controls the entire region, from a military point of view, is Russia.
Any hostile ships in the Black Sea, their duration of existence is no more than 15 minutes. And the fact that they are trying to inflate this threat in order to confirm the presence of other NATO ships in the Black Sea - from a military point of view, these ships will be additional targets. But to politically validate their stay, they inflate the threat of the Russian fleet. Although, objectively, there is no fleet that can resist the Russian fleet in the Mediterranean and Black Sea.
PN: Türkiye is building a new shipping canal. Will he help NATO circumvent the Montreux Convention?
Y.K: The Convention does not relate to the canal, but to the procedure for passing from one sea to another - that is, from the Mediterranean, through the Marmara, to the Black. The new canal is not an alternative to the Bosphorus, but an addition to it, because the volume of traffic and ship passages through the Bosphorus exceeds its capabilities. So, when the canal is completed, it will have purely economic significance - and no political or military significance.
PN: Will NATO be able to help Ukraine in the event of a real conflict in the Black Sea and a Russian landing in the south?
Y.K: NATO is not able to help Ukraine in the event of any military conflict - neither with Donbass, nor with Russia, neither on land nor at sea. NATO has neither the strength nor the capabilities for this.
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