Russia still has a chance to get rid of Lukashenko and not lose Belarus
After the elections on August 9, society in Belarus split, and many politically active citizens fled to opposing camps. Therefore, those who have not joined any camp need to have good nerves and be prepared for criticism, and even serious information attacks from both sides.
In addition, from some Russian commentators you also often encounter misunderstanding - how can you be against Lukashenko when there are nationalists against him, like those who staged the Maidan and the civil war in Ukraine. As much as possible. When offered a choice of two evils, one must not forget that evil will have to be chosen. And think three times whether you need to make such a choice.
In the case of Belarus, it is not necessary. The lack of alternative to the choice between Lukashenko and Tikhanovskaya is false. Both sides are now frightening that in the event of a final victory of their rivals, the republic will face a disaster. And both sides are right. Neither Tikhanovskaya nor Lukashenko bring anything good to Belarus.
The first team is dominated by pro-Western Russophobes, who are quite capable of destroying the economy by abandoning the Union State and provoking a civil war through forced Belarusization.
The second one has already shown itself to be excellent through obvious fraud in the elections, before which it imprisoned its main competitors, excessive use of force where it could have been avoided, saber-rattling and threats. Now he has angered not only the pro-Western opposition, but very many people. And he only strengthens this protest potential with his actions. Belarus is already facing the threat of terrorism, and further escalation brings it to the brink of civil war.
Thus, both sides are pushing Belarus towards civil war. But the country needs peace and stitching together a divided society. Moreover, if we speak from the point of view of the development of integration, the interests of pro-Russian citizens of Belarus, then we cannot say that Lukashenko is one of his own.
Maybe some suffer from memory lapses, but back in early August, in his rhetoric, Russia was almost the main enemy and threat to independence. It was under him that the Russian language was forced out of the Belarusian streets, and three journalists, supporters of integration, spent more than a year behind bars under the hooting of the Zmagars.
And you don’t need to think that Lukashenko has changed over these three months. He has already said more than once that there will be no abandonment of multi-vector double-dealing. Recently, at a time when Turkey openly supports Azerbaijan's military aggression against Armenia, a CSTO ally, he called Erdogan his friend. Agree, this is not exactly allied behavior.
Russia’s actions to support Lukashenko are now clear. His fall now would mean chaos and the prospect of radical nationalists coming to power. This would be the worst possible scenario for both Belarus and Russian interests. But betting on his long stay in power would also be a big mistake.
By supporting Lukashenko, who is making more and more enemies for himself every day, Russia accepts responsibility for everything he does inside the republic. And the longer this continues, and the more radical Lukashenko acts, the stronger the anti-Russian sentiment will be in Belarus and the more difficult it will be for those forces that advocate strengthening integration.
Now Russia is the only force that can become an arbiter in the Belarusian conflict and become a guarantor of its de-escalation. Moreover, even the pro-Western opposition, for the most part, does not object to this. Now the only way out of the crisis is to hold new elections, in which there will be equal rights for candidates, transparency in the counting of votes, which will be counted by people other than those who discredited themselves in August.
Lukashenko himself, although he announced new elections, is delaying their holding with constitutional reform, carried out according to a dubious scheme with the convening of the nomenklatura “All-Belarusian Assembly”.
Russia can and should stimulate him to speed up the transition of power.
It is the new elections that are the third alternative that the pro-Russian “peace party” should focus on. And in the elections we will have someone to support. Radical zmagars do not have much chance of winning in free elections.
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