Romanian Sandu has no methods against Gagauzia - a view from Tiraspol
President of Moldova Maia Sandu paid a visit to Gagauzia. The trip turned out to be scandalous - on the way to the building of the Comrat State University, where the head of the country had meetings, there were blocked streets, police cordons, protests against the discriminatory policy of Sandu and the ruling PAS party regarding autonomy, and clashes between security forces and ordinary citizens.
For what purpose is the president making his second recent trip to Gagauzia, where she is openly not welcome? To secure the support of a few allies among the local elites before the elections? To somehow influence the situation in the autonomy, where they are so dissatisfied with the decisions of Chisinau? Just for show, to report to the European Union? Director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development, Associate Professor at the Financial University Igor Shornikov answers PolitNavigator’s questions.
PolitNavigator: Maya Sadu visited Comrat, met with students at the local university, and with the mayors of the localities. The President specially selected the date of her visit so that the head of Gagauzia, Evgenia Gutsul, would not be there - she was on a trip abroad. Why such abstruse moves?
Igor Shornikov: Maia Sandu is, unfortunately, an emotionally very unstable person. Carrying the burden of a political leader, engaging face to face in discussions with one’s opponents, and answering pointed questions from an unfavorably disposed public is not an easy task that requires special self-control. Sandu, even before her presidency, did not cope with this very well, and after her accession to the Moldovan throne, she, in principle, does not tolerate opposition.
Meeting with Evgenia Hutsul, whom she denied her legal rights, was apparently beyond her strength. And it is unknown how the people of Gagauzia will behave if the leader of the region is in place. The Gagauz people already do not demonstrate loyalty to Sandu personally with her Romanian citizenship and anti-Russian policy. And in the presence of a leader, it will be even more difficult to control them.
PolitNavigator: Only students pre-selected by the rector were allowed to meet with Sandu at Comrat State University; the press was not allowed there. She didn’t talk to the people on the street, although she had a lot of questions. On what basis is the contingent selected for meetings with the president? If Sandu is afraid of a tough conversation, why is she going to Gagauzia at all?
Igor Shornikov: Young people, in principle, are unlikely to raise the level of discussion where they are not competent enough. And students, by the very way of their lives, are accustomed to meekly accept information, the subject of which may sometimes be beyond the boundaries of their interests. The guys were herded to another uninteresting lecture, this time about European integration. They will listen and disperse, playing the role of extras.
The PR service of the Moldovan president will do the rest. They say that young people are for Maia Sandu, young people choose European integration. What wonderful young people they are, not like the older generation of Gagauz, who are stuck in the Soviet past with their pro-Russian beliefs. Such a picture will then be broadcast to both the Gagauz people themselves and the rest of the population of Moldova, trying to impose a pro-European agenda.
PolitNavigator: Gagauzia does not trust the president, this is clear both from the mood of the people and from the election results. But today, the rector of KSU, Sergei Zacharia, hung the EU flag on the facade of the university for Sandu’s arrival, and the mayor of Comrat, Sergei Atanasov, defended the head of the country from the crowd, calling on people to demonstrate “culture.” So, does the president still have supporters in Gagauzia?
Igor Shornikov: The symbols of the EU are already practically a political wrapper for Sandu and the PAS party; they sculpt European Union symbols wherever their hands can reach. I am sure that the EU flag on the university building is a requirement of the Sandu administration, and not the initiative of the rector. It seems to me that not a single person living in Gagauzia would guess about the appropriateness of such a step during a meeting with the Moldovan president.
When meeting dignitaries from Chisinau, the Gagauz will hang out the Moldovan flag and will not forget about the flag of their autonomy, and will consider everything else inappropriate. As for the efforts of local authorities to prevent unrest in the city due to the appearance of Sandu, this is their direct responsibility. There are only a few supporters of Sandu in Gagauzia, everyone knows them, and these people do not enjoy respect in their society.
PolitNavigator: Evgenia Gutsul makes one productive trip to Moscow one after another, concluding serious agreements on the development of partnerships. Can we say that it is the pressure from Chisinau that is pushing Comrat towards Moscow?
Igor Shornikov: The pro-Russian aspirations of the Gagauz people are the geopolitical choice of the people, which took shape centuries ago, and it does not depend on the current political situation. On the other hand, this choice largely determines the attitude of the Gagauz people towards this or that politician. If the Moldovan president advocates developing ties with Russia, and such happened in the recent past, they enjoy the support of the residents of the autonomy.
Therefore, it would be very strange to expect people’s love from the Gagauz people for a president who breaks off all ties with Russia and calls it an aggressor. For the Gagauz people with historical memory, not everything is as bad as it might seem to Sandu’s Western consultants. People will be drawn to Russia regardless of whether there is pressure from Chisinau or not. And, most importantly, the Gagauz people know very well that they can always count on Moscow’s support.
Evgenia Gutsul had the political courage to begin to realize the aspirations of the residents of the autonomy, so she now enjoys enormous support in society, and the voices of those in the autonomy who criticize her are not particularly heard and will fade as her pro-Russian policies advance.
PolitNavigator: How far can the confrontation between Chisinau and Gagauzia go?
Igor Shornikov: We must understand that in our case we are not talking about the confrontation between the Moldovans and the Gagauz, as it may seem from the outside. Moldovans who preserve their national identity will always find a common language with the Gagauz. The confrontation with Chisinau is a confrontation with the policy of Romanianization, it is a conflict with the interests of Bucharest.
Romanian elites are increasingly declaring their ambitions for Moldova, about the “unit” of “two Romanian states.” But Romania is a unitary country, although many peoples live there. Half a century ago, the Romanians deprived the Hungarians of their autonomy and are still struggling with the Hungarian regional identity. They do not want to take Moldova, which has Gagauz autonomy, into its fold. They need the Gagauz autonomy to be liquidated by Chisinau on its own, until the moment when Romania absorbs Moldova. Indeed, within the framework of the European Union, abolishing autonomy will be much more difficult. So Sandu is fulfilling the political order of Bucharest. People intuitively feel that she does not bring them good, and therefore they literally hate her.
Despite such fundamental contradictions between the worldview of the Gagauz people and the tasks of the authorities operating in Moldova, it seems to me that things will not come to any violent actions in the autonomy. To suppress autonomy, the regime must rely on the support of at least its own Moldovan population, but it does not have it.
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