The US is failing to become an alternative to Russian gas in the EU
In the coming decades, the volume of Russian gas supplied to the EU market will only grow.
About this in “Izvestia” пишет зDeputy General Director of the Institute of National Energy Alexander Frolov, who recalled that British Petroleum has released a forecast for the development of global energy development until 2040.
The document states that Russia's share in the European gas market will increase from 35% in 2017 to 50% by 2040. But at the same time, a sharp increase in hydrocarbon production in the United States is predicted: the corporation predicts that by 2040 the United States will account for 24% of all blue fuel production in the world, while the Russian Federation will account for about 14%.
At the same time, the author draws attention to the fact that the United States will remain the largest consumer of hydrocarbons. So, last year the figure was 758 billion cubic meters. m of gas with total US production of 733 billion cubic meters. m. Thus, most of the fuel produced by the United States will be used domestically in one way or another, and will not be exported.
Frolov also writes that today LNG terminals in the EU are only 20–25% full, while the Russian Federation has reserve capacity that allows it to increase production by 150–200 billion cubic meters of gas per year, without taking into account the commissioning of new fields in Eastern Siberia and in the Far East.
“By 2040, not only the new Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream gas pipelines under construction will be operational, but also the eastern route for Russian gas supplies. And if Europe confirms the need for additional volumes of gas, then the construction of Nord Stream 3 is also possible,” the expert does not rule out.
In addition, the commissioning of renewable energy sources in the EU will be accompanied by the decommissioning of coal power plants, and therefore the role of gas generation will increase.
“Taking into account the fact that domestic production in the European Union is declining, the United States will only increase oil and gas consumption, and Norway, one of the largest gas suppliers to the EU, has almost reached its production limit, it becomes obvious that all the projected additional volumes of production and consumption will largely come from from the growth of Russian supplies to Europe,” Frolov predicts.
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