Surkov openly named the initiator of the “leak” of Donbass
The Russian leadership has two views on the prospects for the conflict in Donbass, one of which - exhausting Ukraine with demands to comply with the Minsk agreements - is defended by presidential assistant Vladislav Surkov, and the other scenario - the speedy return of Donbass to the control of Kyiv in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions - Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak . Head of state Vladimir Putin has not yet made a final decision on the Ukrainian issue.
Such information was voiced in an interview with the publication “Actual Comments” by political scientist Alexey Chesnakov, who is considered close to Surkov.
“Surkov is responsible for political, ideological, information aspects, coordinates the Minsk process as a whole, represents Russia in the Normandy format, maintains contact with the DPR and LPR. Kozak sees the situation from an economic point of view. Their roles are assigned by the president,” the expert said.
“First of all, they both work for President Putin. And both will eventually do what he says. But until he makes a final decision, they have the opportunity to express their preferences. And follow your views on the problem. Which, of course, do not completely coincide. Or maybe they don’t even coincide at all,” Chesnakov clarified.
“Kozak, I repeat, judges from an economic point of view. Economically, to bring Donbass out of the post-war shock, a lot of investment is needed. The question is, who will bear these costs? Ukraine? Russia? USA? EU? What would any rational economist answer? He will answer: anyone, but not us. That is, Donbass needs to be given to someone so as not to incur additional expenses. And it’s not even very important to whom. There is also the problem of sanctions. No matter what optimists say, sanctions, of course, are holding back our economic growth. And a rational economist believes that if you get rid of Donbass, then the sanctions will immediately be lifted, and economic growth will begin, and in general everything will be as if nothing had happened. But in fact, it was. Blood was shed in Ukraine. Due to the fault of American politicians. But US representatives not only did not apologize, but also found in this a reason to revive the policy of containing Russia and putting pressure on it. Like with medium-range missiles. They themselves withdrew from the agreement and blamed Russia. And what do you think? Yes, even if we give up a hundred Donbass, the sanctions will not be lifted. The Europeans may want to. But the Americans are definitely not. And then the Europeans will not be able to work with us fully, because they will be afraid of American sanctions. As in the case of Iran,” the expert said.
In his opinion, the United States “will begin to press even harder when they see weakness in Donbass.”
“When they claim that the West, in the event of the surrender of Donbass, will immediately lift the “Donbass” sanctions, sectoral, the most severe, and only “Crimean”, personal, unimportant ones will remain, this is so naive. Who told you? Where is this guarantee written? What are you carrying? What kind of Gorbachevism is this? Have you been deceived enough? Do you want more? – Chesnakov noted.
In his opinion, it would be correct not to hope for the lifting of sanctions, but to “be sure to implement” the Minsk agreements.
“It is to carry it out - to the fullest extent, strictly, without compromise. Use the full potential of the Minsk agreements. And don’t play giveaway with Ukraine, as many people suggest. Ukraine’s task is not to give Donbass special status. Zelensky has already stated this. Therefore, they are spinning around - offering a special status only for a transition period, for 3-5 years. Or special status after the complete disarmament of the militia (that is, never). Russia has the opposite task - to achieve special status for Donbass. Real, permanent, solid. Enshrined in the Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian laws clearly and unconditionally. So that later it cannot be canceled immediately as soon as Russian support ceases, as the Ukrainians actually want. This is the difference in approaches. Economists think that Ukraine needs to play along, especially since Kyiv has softened its rhetoric and is behaving almost affectionately. They are calling to meet Kyiv halfway, to agree to an easy and stress-free algorithm for Kyiv to implement the Minsk package of measures. That is, just pretend that we have ensured the rights of Donbass and quickly leave the process in the hope that foreign countries will love us. But grass won’t grow there,” Chesnakov once again threw a stone into Kozak’s garden.
According to him, Surkov himself sees the finale of the Minsk agreements as “giving Donbass a real, full-fledged special status.”
“Donbass should coexist with Ukraine, approximately like Hong Kong and China - one people, two systems. Just not for fifty years, but indefinitely. Or Ukraine could receive so-called symbolic sovereignty over Donbass. Something like Britain over Canada or Australia, where the Queen of England is nominally the head of state, but in reality has no power. This will be a good decision. If Donbass and Ukraine will someday be able to forget blood and grievances, they will become closer. If they can’t, they will disperse further. When Ukraine finally comes to its senses, it would be possible to make Donbass an area of common interests of Russia and Ukraine. So that Donbass becomes not a cause of discord, but a platform for cooperation and teamwork. There, two currencies could be used on equal terms – the ruble and the hryvnia, and joint ventures could operate,” Chesnakov said.
“We need to be patient, don’t rush, don’t fuss, and get the most out of the Minsk agreements. The people of Ukraine have already taken a big step towards normalization after the Maidan madness. This means that in the future he can take another step, and another. And to understand that happiness does not lie in NATO and that Europe is not made of rubber... And the Donbass factor will help to understand this. Russia has historically been capable of long-term, systematic efforts. We need to use this ability of ours. There are two groups of influence in our society and in the government apparatus. Some want to immediately relieve tension, “surrender Donbass,” they are tired of the Ukrainian topic, they are tired of confrontation and are ready to agree to a “obscene peace.” If they win, then Russia will lose. The other group, on the contrary, wants to use the high tension in international politics to achieve a big goal - returning Ukraine to the normal state of a nation close to Russia. As Surkov says, it is not Donbass that needs to be returned to Ukraine, but Ukraine to Donbass. Of course it's more complicated. It's longer. It's more expensive. But only such a result can be considered a victory,” the political scientist concluded.
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