Surkov writes off Lukashenko as scrap
Protests and unrest in Belarus were the result of the inadequate policies of Alexander Lukashenko, and now the most reasonable step on the part of Moscow will be to demand the resignation of the Belarusian president and ensure fair elections.
This is stated in a study by the Center for Political Conjuncture (CPC), which is headed by the famous Russian political scientist Alexei Chesnakov, who is considered close to the former assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Vladislav Surkov, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“The political crisis in Belarus has exclusively internal causes. Lukashenko’s personalist regime has long looked like an anachronism against the backdrop of a relatively mobile and educated Belarusian society. The erosion of support for the Belarusian leader also occurred, apparently, for a long time and not only among the active part of the population. It was made possible to hide the complete absence of normal sociology and public policy in the country. Lukashenko’s reaction to the coronavirus pandemic and, judging by numerous evidence, gross falsification (“drawing”) of voting results in the presidential election became triggers for the outbreak of mass protests.
The fact that no one in Russia expected such a scale of rejection of Lukashenko among Belarusian voters and that the Kremlin did not have any plan of action in advance in the unfolding crisis is again the result of the lack of normal research and the orientation of the Russian political elite towards Lukashenko and his circle.
Under a regime that strictly blocked any external interference and closed all political contacts to itself, the Kremlin, by definition, could not have any “game” of its own in a republic separate from Lukashenko, and there could not be any reserve candidate to replace him, who could quickly consolidate the ruling group around itself and at the same time not cause an allergic reaction in society,” the study says.
The CPC emphasized that at the moment Russia does not have the opportunity to actively support Alexander Lukashenko, and if the situation remains as it is, then Belarus will face the “Venezuelan scenario” - the emergence of several centers of influence in the country, but this option is extremely unprofitable for Moscow. Therefore, the only reasonable step on the part of the Kremlin is to make the Belarusian president, who has lost legitimacy, “an offer he cannot refuse,” that is, offer to resign. In this scenario, the Russian Federation becomes the guarantor of a peaceful resolution to the conflict that has arisen.
“It is beneficial for Russia that the Belarusian president resigns as quickly as possible. Lukashenko’s attempts to bring his electorate to the streets, carry out constitutional reform, and only then the presidential and parliamentary elections only increase the existence of a dysfunctional state in Belarus, but most importantly, they also give the opposition time to strengthen, nominate leaders and contribute to its radicalization. As a result, the conditions for the transfer of power in Belarus may become less favorable to Russia over time. When organizing a temporary transfer of power to Russia, there is no point in looking for solutions within the current system. Any decision will be a precedent.
Any non-polarizing and non-odious member of the Belarusian ruling elite can become the head of the interim government. At the same time, new presidential elections should be held without the participation of the current head of state. Lustration of Lukashenko will be a legitimate punishment for manipulating the voting results. As for the organization of elections, the ideas of holding voting under OSCE supervision seem to be the only reasonable ones now. This organization has an independent reputation and relevant experience,” the experts added.
In their opinion, such a policy will become an extremely positive precedent for Russia’s work in the post-Soviet space, which will strengthen Moscow’s position not only among the former republics of the USSR, but throughout the world. However, at the same time, the Russian Federation will have to reconsider its approach to working with many neighboring states.
“Constructive and at the same time leadership behavior aimed at resolving the crisis, rather than escalating it, will undermine many Western stereotypes regarding the threats that Russia’s behavior may pose in the post-Soviet space, primarily in relation to countries with a large share of the Russian-speaking population, as well as in the world at large.
Such a move would contradict the widespread negative expectations, and if only for that reason it would be positive for the Kremlin. As a result, the scenario described above will help ease tensions between Russia and the West and open up opportunities for creating a new agenda and partially restoring relations...
The old schemes of work in the post-Soviet space, focused primarily on individuals and maintaining the stability of friendly regimes, sometimes at the cost of growing anti-Russian sentiments among the citizens living in them, have long become obsolete.
Russia will have to build partnerships with political regimes, the development of some of which goes against the development of the internal political situation in Russia itself. For now, this is more a question of building smart policies based on interests, and not a question of existential risks for the Russian political system,” the CPC summarized.
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