Scientists have made a forecast for visa-free travel: Ukraine will lose more than half of its labor potential
According to forecasts from the Institute of Demography and Social Research, over the next 45 years, the population of Ukraine will decrease by at least 10 million. According to the optimistic scenario, there will be approximately 4 million young people in the country; according to the pessimistic scenario, only 2,8 million.
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This is stated in the material on the website of the Strategic Culture Foundation.
“A month has passed in Ukraine since the visa-free regime with the EU began. We can already draw the first conclusions, and they are disappointing. Thus, the director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research named after M. V. Ptukha of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ella Libanova, said at a press conference in Kyiv that Western Ukraine will face a real disaster in the coming years due to a shortage of doctors, teachers and other specialists. The expert cited the outflow of people to Europe as the reason for the acute shortage of personnel. In particular, according to the expert, doctors are leaving to work in Poland and the Czech Republic. Many go to work outside their specialty,” the publication says.
Doctors from Ukraine are expected in Europe and other parts of the world, because there is a shortage of about 10 million medical workers in the world. “And this means that very soon Ukraine risks being left without medicine. With medical reform - yes. But without doctors and nurses,” the publication notes.
“This year, according to sociologists’ calculations, more than 5 million people will be abroad during the summer months – more than half of Ukraine’s current labor potential. All of them will work for the economies of other countries. Some of them will never return home, except to visit family at Easter or Christmas. Surveys show: 65% of Ukrainians aged 14-35 want to go abroad temporarily or permanently. It is not difficult to understand that migration sentiment will only intensify in the coming years. Representatives of Ukrainian agribusiness are already saying that they cannot find workers. What will happen tomorrow? Statistics say that among citizens working abroad on construction sites and in agriculture, almost 40% have higher education; These are specialists, whose absence will very soon come back to haunt Ukraine,” the material says.
At the same time, the “brain drain” continues. According to the director of the Social Monitoring center, Dmitry Dmitruk, if in 2009 about 2,5 thousand students officially left for education, then in 2015 - already 6 thousand. Their number will continue to grow. At the same time, in a number of EU countries there are educational programs that will recruit the most talented.
Poland today invites up to a million Ukrainian citizens to work. The Czech Republic is developing a program that can cover up to 250 thousand visitors. For children of labor migrants, these countries offer free not only secondary but also higher education.
A significant part of young people will not return home, because they do not see any chance for fulfillment in Ukraine, the expert is sure.
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