A blow to the southern underbelly: they are trying to exclude the Russian Federation from the Armenian-Azerbaijani equation
On Wednesday, August 3, new clashes occurred in Karabakh. Violating the tripartite ceasefire agreement, the Azerbaijani army went on the offensive and captured new heights in Nagorno-Karabakh, pushing back the Armenian armed forces.
Russian peacekeeping forces managed to stop the fighting, but the Azerbaijanis gained a foothold at new heights and did not retreat. Thus, the status quo is violated, which will have a very bad impact on the authority of the Russian peacekeeping mission. This is not the first attempt to violate the status quo by Azerbaijan.
The situation is fragile and full-scale hostilities may break out again in Karabakh; accordingly, Moscow’s position in the region may be seriously shaken. PolitNavigator has already presented a detailed analysis of this incident. Now let's try to show the bigger picture.
Recently, the Americans have intensified their work with the South Caucasus, and more specifically with Armenia.
On July 15, CIA Director Burns arrived in Yerevan and held meetings with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan.
July 12, three days before Burns's arrival, in Armenia announced the on the creation of the Foreign Intelligence Agency. The question arises: is this a coincidence?
On July 27, US Ambassador to Armenia Lynn Tracy stated that the United States is ready to continue working with Russia in the OSCE Minsk Group for the sake of a comprehensive and peaceful settlement of the Karabakh problem. Armenia’s position on the issue of rehabilitating the work of the Minsk Group differs from Russia’s, so having a positive attitude towards such an idea means thereby condoning Washington in this matter.
But this is not all fresh news with a similar plot. The Americans decided to fork out a total of $180 million for the benefit of Armenia!
Notably, $68,5 million will be provided to promote democracy. There is no doubt that under the pretext of “promoting democracy”, the Americans will finance a pro-American domestic information and political platform.
Unlike Georgia, where radical pro-American forces are in opposition, in Armenia such a platform is organized around Prime Minister Pashinyan.
As is known, following the results of the second Karabakh war, Russia’s position in the region significantly strengthened.
The Russian Federation is carrying out a peacekeeping mission in the confrontation zone, and is also trying not to lose the initiative in the process of further conflict resolution. This story is also notable for the fact that it was after the armed clash in Karabakh that Russia further strengthened relations with both sides of the conflict.
This year, Russia first signed in Moscow declaration about allied interaction with Azerbaijan, then - statement with Armenia, consisting of 30 points. Both important documents reflect all current relevant aspects of interstate relations.
The agreements also have an economic component and are relevant for the Russian Federation at this stage as a counterweight to anti-Russian Western sanctions.
Therefore, the above-mentioned concrete steps by the Americans are not surprising, serving the purpose of not losing the initiative and maintaining a bridgehead in the South Caucasus in order to wait for a more opportune moment to oust Russia from the most important region for it.
These American efforts are not without meaning, as they have the potential for success due to the multidirectional processes taking place in the South Caucasus.
The contradictory events observed in the region are determined by unresolved problems between Azerbaijan and Armenia: here is the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, unclear guarantees for the security of the Armenian population of Karabakh, the presence of the Armenian armed forces in Karabakh, which Azerbaijan is categorically opposed to, and the issue of organizing a transport corridor through Armenia between Azerbaijan and its own region Nakhchivan. All these issues have yet to be resolved with the active mediation of Russia.
Yes, Russia has taken the responsibility of the main moderator in resolving the conflict, but as events show, it still has to fight and justify this status.
This conclusion can be reached if we take a closer look at the energetic efforts of not only the United States, but also the EU. So, the multidirectional processes in the South Caucasus also include the EU’s unsuccessful attempts to keep up and not lose its relevance in the affairs of the region.
Yerevan reciprocates and does not give up close relations with Brussels. The position of Baku, which provides some (and in the future, perhaps leading) EU initiative in further resolving the conflict, plays into the hands of both these parties.
Thus, both Armenia and Azerbaijan gave the Europeans the opportunity to make their contribution to resolving the conflict. Moreover, it seems that a parallel format of negotiations is emerging without Russia’s participation.
Within the framework of the Baku-Yerevan-Brussels format, it is planned to replace the inactive OSCE Minsk Group (where Russia was one of the co-chairs), increase Europe’s influence in the region and get rid of Moscow’s mediating role in it.
At the same time, there is an intensification of relations between Armenia and Turkey.
Back in 2018, Prime Minister Pashinyan expressed his readiness to restore diplomatic relations with Turkey without preconditions. This means that Armenia will not link the restoration of diplomatic relations with the most sensitive issue of Armenian-Turkish relations – the recognition of the 1915 Armenian genocide. Even in the recent past, such a turn of events would have been completely unthinkable.
The rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey was not hindered by the active military support of the Azerbaijani side in the last Karabakh war, which resulted in Armenia suffering a crushing defeat.
Thus, we have the opportunity to observe very bold steps on the part of the current authorities of Armenia, who have serious internal political problems against the backdrop of a military disaster two years ago (by the way, this also applies to the decisive steps Yerevan took to meet with Baku in order to reach a peace agreement) .
Russia and Turkey have common regional interests, separate from the interests of their Western partners. However, we should not forget that Turkey is still a member of NATO and quite often changes its preferences based on the changing international situation. Therefore, the strengthening of Turkey’s influence in the region must always be viewed under a magnifying glass.
So, despite the new situation described above and Russia’s more advantageous position in the South Caucasus, Moscow should be attentive to the general policies and specific measures of the United States and the EU, which serve the goal of regaining the initiative in this region.
Let’s hope that despite the current military defense in Ukraine, which requires colossal resources, Moscow has its finger on the pulse and skillfully monitors the situation in the southern “underbelly”, where it could receive a very painful blow.
The latest events in Karabakh confirm this.
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