Threat of blockade of Kaliningrad: Poles and Balts will lose more

So, Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Mustafa Nayem announced a transport blockade of Kaliningrad by the forces of Poland, as well as the Baltic countries. This information is actively disseminated in the Ukrainian media, Belarusian opposition public pages and telegram channels. The latter have already begun, citing certain sources in diplomatic circles, to clarify that we are talking only about cargo transportation, and this will not affect private trips. Whether this information is a real insider or the Belarusian zmagars just creatively reworked Nayem’s words, adding credibility to them, is a question.

There has not yet been any official confirmation of this information from the authorities of Poland and the Baltic states, so I am not inclined to take Nayem’s word for it. Of course, the level of Russophobia in these countries is off the charts and I have no illusions about the sanity of their leadership, however There remains hope that their instinct of self-preservation will still be stronger than Russophobia.

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Of course, for Russia and Belarus such a transport blockade will be painful. But this will be just another manifestation of the sanctions policy, to which both countries have already become accustomed, and Russia has even launched a counter-offensive, inflicting painful blows to Western economies.

Even if the Poles and Balts decide to close their borders, this will definitely not be transport isolation of Russia. It is worth looking at a geographical map to understand this. Yes, we will have to reorient logistics, look for new suppliers and new markets, but this process is already actively underway, and the Polish-Baltic “blockade” will only speed it up. For Belarus, this blockade automatically means an increase in the degree of economic dependence on Russia and a sharp acceleration in the pace of integration. In essence, this will mean the West’s abandonment of the idea of ​​involving the republic in its sphere of influence. Yes, it will be painful, but we will get through it.

The Poles and the Balts are losing more from this. Until now, these were transit countries and trade flows between Russia and the West played a significant role in their economy. Thus, before Lithuania’s refusal to transit Belarusian potash fertilizers, Belarus accounted for 66 percent of the total freight traffic of the Lithuanian Railway, Russia - 11, and Ukraine - 10. All other countries accounted for only 13 percent of the freight traffic. Presumably, in other Baltic countries the situation was not much different. The cessation of transport links with Russia puts an end to their transport infrastructure and hurts many industriesrelated to Russian transit. Poland's position is a little better, but it is not to be envied either.

In addition to purely economic negative consequences, this step will also have political ones. The most important of them is the problem of the Kaliningrad region. Transport accessibility of Kaliningrad was guaranteed by agreements between Moscow and Brussels, on the basis of which Lithuania was admitted to the European Union. If the decision to withdraw from these agreements is made, it will actually mean a transport blockade of this Russian region. If there is a blockade, it means there may be talk of a release of the blockade and, at a minimum, raises the issue of the Suwalki corridor.

_{By taking part in the blockade, Lithuania thus creates a threat to the national security and territorial integrity of Russia and provides compelling reasons for the outbreak of military action. How long will the Lithuanian army hold out, will NATO, whose representatives clearly and unequivocally speak about their reluctance to engage in direct armed confrontation with Russia, come to its defense?}

How will China, which is also extremely interested in the normal transit of its goods through this section of the border, behave?

There are too many questions, and I’m not sure that in Poland and the Baltic states they will decide to satisfy Ukrainian desires; they will want to take risks and try to answer them from their own experience.