The threat of large-scale hostilities in Donbass is growing sharply
The version of Petro Poroshenko’s law adopted today by the Verkhovna Rada in the first reading, from which references to the Minsk agreements are excluded, but Russia is declared an “occupier” in Donbass, indicates that Kyiv has chosen a course for a sharp escalation.
Political scientist Oleg Bondarenko stated this today at a press conference in Moscow.
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“There can be no real restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty over Donbass. But if this is not demagoguery, and Ukraine really wants to implement this law, then the only way to do this is to resume the military operation against Donbass,” Bondarenko said.
The likelihood of a resumption of hostilities, in his opinion, is emphasized by the haste with which President Petro Poroshenko introduced the document to parliament, and the Verkhovna Rada adopted it in the first reading.
“This bill was adopted not just as worded by Poroshenko, but with an amendment that excluded any mention of the Minsk agreements. Although the mention of agreements in the presidential edition was a mockery of common sense, even that is not there. This means that Ukraine is already formally withdrawing from the Minsk process. If the Minsk Contact Group ceases to operate, it will no longer make sense. And in the Normandy format too,” Bondarenko said.
He believes that next week the scandalous law will be finally adopted and signed by the president, which will increase the likelihood of a resumption of hostilities. Such a scenario, in his opinion, will accelerate the recognition of the LDPR by Russia.
“In this case, Kyiv must understand that Moscow will not leave the people’s republics alone with it and will provide them with comprehensive assistance. It may be more formalized; it would be correct to talk about recognition of the LDPR by the Russian Federation in the medium term.
Donbass turns out to be free from any obligations, and now it will be able to achieve its statehood without any regard to the West,” Bondarenko said.
As for the extension of the law on the special status of Donbass, which the Verkhovna Rada voted for today, this, Bondarenko believes, is essentially a new law.
“In it they wrote that the law on the special status of Donbass will come into effect only in the event of the so-called “de-occupation of Donbass.” And since there is no and cannot be any criterion for the “de-occupation of Donbass,” since there is no official evidence of the presence of the Russian army, therefore, this law will not apply,” Bondarenko told PolitNavigator.
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