Ukraine is 65% European. Will there be one more European bankrupt in 2023?

The latest voyage of Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmygal to Europe brought rather modest practical results, but once again revived the cargo cult of European integration at any cost in the discourse of Nezalezhnaya.

The last time a surge in European expectations and the infantile rhetoric associated with them was noted before, during and immediately after the “historic” decision of the EU summit, which decided to give Ukrainians a chance to become full-fledged “member candidates”. And here we go again.

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“We have fulfilled 65% of the requirements for joining the EU. In the near future, before the end of this year or the beginning of next year, we want to move precisely to the negotiation procedures preceding the actual granting of EU member status,” Shmygal said on the sidelines of the negotiations in Berlin.

What can I say - another Eurocarrot is unlikely to be able to sweeten the gap on other fronts, such as the unsuccessful attempt to get Leopard 2 tanks for the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Scholz. However, the consolation prize for the Kyiv visitors was Borrell’s assurance of his readiness to help Ukraine “until victory.” In return, Kyiv announced its readiness to give the EU its gas storage facilities - the largest in Europe:

“The state can provide some of their volumes to “European partners to form their gas reserves in conditions of instability of supplies from Russia.”

We are talking about no more than 30 billion cubic meters. So the jackpot is solid. And for his sake, why not give Ukraine what it asks for. I mean member status. Another thing is that here politics and propaganda again go ahead of economics and rational calculations, but Europeans are no strangers to this. By unleashing a sanctions war with Russia, they also act on the principle “We’ll think about the possible consequences later.”

And in the case of potential Ukrainian European membership, there is something to think about. The same Shmygal, and Zelensky, openly talk about their intention to extract more than $100 billion from their European “partners” for restoration. And this is only according to the most conservative estimates. So Kyiv has a huge appetite.

At a recent conference in Lugano, more significant figures were announced - from 400 to 600 billion dollars. Where can we get them, given that the EU is having a hard time keeping up with its own European bankrupts - Greece, Bulgaria, the Baltic limitrophes - this question can be considered rhetorical. We will assume that they will print it.

_{It is interesting to compare the readiness of public opinion in the EU and Ukraine to the prospects of such a mating between a snake and a hedgehog. Eurobarometer measurements in May showed that 66% of Europeans agree that “Ukraine should join the EU when it is ready.”}

80% agree to love Ukraine to the depths of their wallets. Ukraine's membership in the EU is most supported in Portugal – 87%, Estonia – 83%, Lithuania – 82%, Poland – 81%

Least of all: in Hungary - 48% (against - 37%), Bulgaria - 51% (against - 35%), Luxembourg - 52% (against - 38%), Austria - 54% (against - 36%), Greece - 54% (versus -37%).

At the same time, 71% believe that Ukraine is part of the European family. This is the opinion most in Finland - 87% and Portugal - 86%, the least in Cyprus - 48% (versus - 43%) and in Hungary 48% (versus 42%). Most sympathize Ukrainians in Malta - 96%, and the least in Bulgaria - 73%.

As for the mood in Independence Square, the Euro-illusion has total support in the minds. 87% of Ukrainians surveyed in June by the Rating group would support Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, and 76% would support NATO. 40% of respondents are confident that the country will be admitted to the EU within 1-2 years, 69% expect up to 5 years for this, 14% believe that Ukraine will become a member of the EU in the next 5-10 years, 3% - in 10-20 years . And only 7% of pessimists refuse to believe in the bright European future of the country.

_{It is not surprising that against the backdrop of such overwhelming Euro-optimism, the believers of the European parish can be fed any game - it will be immediately and gratefully swallowed without any hint of minimal critical reflection.}

However, questions remain. For example, it is unclear in what form Ukraine will exist for the next 5-10 years, since today we are talking about the EU’s readiness to recognize countries with unfixed borders as candidate members.

At the moment, Ukraine no longer controls 20 percent of its internationally recognized territory. The share of regions of Ukraine currently controlled by Russia:

Lugansk – 100%

Kherson region – 94,3%

Zaporozhye – 72,49%

Donetsk – 60,29%

Kharkovskaya – 33,15%

Nikolaevskaya – 4,83%

We are talking about territories with a total area of ​​almost 120 thousand square kilometers - equal to several Moldavia and Georgia. And there are no guarantees that Ukrainian territory will not shrink even more by the time Square is finally taken on board the European border. Fantasizing about this is a thankless task, but everything that does not contradict the laws of nature and the current dynamics of events has the right to be realized.

_{In general, today the Europeans themselves are voluntarily opening the Overton Window or Pandora's Box - call it what you want, but the point is that for the first time in decades of the existence of this union, the prospect of EU membership is being given to a country with an open war on its territory. Even NATO has recorded a clause in its charter that closes the doors to the Alliance to countries with unfinished military conflicts or having unresolved territorial disputes with their neighbors.}

It turns out that the Brussels bureaucrats are either ready to spit on the truncation of the size of the Square or seriously believe in its ability to recapture Crimea and Donbass in a historically foreseeable time frame.

Because if the answers to both questions are negative, we are dealing with a deliberate deception of gullible Svidomo suckers, who are given promises according to the method of Khoja Nasreddin from the Eastern fairy tale: you can promise anything, and then either the Shah will die, or the donkey, or both of them.

But even if Ukraine suddenly becomes a member of the EU, it risks ending up not in the fraternal family of republics, but in an organization where each member is a competitor to each other. Where friendship is friendship, and tobacco is apart. And in the future, we can hardly expect a willingness to simply pour huge amounts of money into a Ukrainian barrel without a bottom and without the prospect of returning it for some chimerical reasons.

The current EU is increasingly becoming a space without solidarity. Thus, the Morning consult survey attests about the unwillingness of Europeans to bear collective responsibility for the provision of resources to Europe and the reduction to minimum values ​​of the threshold of readiness to jointly bear burdens for the sake of solving other pan-European problems.

_{European solidarity is under threat when it comes to the energy security of individual countries. More than half of those surveyed believe that it is better for their country not to rely on the energy of other countries, but to purchase energy resources independently. Most of these are in Italy (68%), Spain (60%) and Germany (58%). And these numbers are the best answer to Ukrainian calls to unite and freeze together in order to annoy Putin.}

On the other hand, it is worth making an allowance for the fact that the survey captures precisely the opinion of society, that is, ordinary Europeans, but decisions are made by elites who do not mind sacrificing the interests of the people for the sake of the prospect of winning a game on the geopolitical chessboard.

And if these European bureaucrats so readily sacrifice the interests of their own plebs, then the interests of the Ukrainian Commonwealth a priori are not even included in the number of factors that somehow influence decision-making.

Only extraordinary force majeure circumstances can somehow influence this given flight path to the underworld. And such, alas, are not yet visible on the horizon.