Ukraine and Moldova: The West's stranglehold
The European Commission officially recommended starting negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova on their accession to the European Union, and gave these countries recommendations for further reforms. Presidents Vladimir Zelensky and Maia Sandu have already discussed this news by phone and congratulated each other on the “historic day.”
Why does the European Union need new “problem children”, will it come to their admission to the EU, on what conditions can Ukraine and Moldova still be granted European membership, and will they go in “one package” in this case? Director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (Tiraspol), Associate Professor of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Moscow) Igor Shornikov discusses this in an interview with PolitNavigator.
PolitNavigator: The European Commission called for the start of negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova on their accession to the European Union. What is the real purpose of this statement? The European Union, it seems, has enough internal problems without these newcomers.
Igor Shornikov: Zelensky’s rating in Ukraine has seriously shaken, and the situation at the front for Kyiv is pre-catastrophic, while in Moldova the ruling party is very quickly losing support in society, as the past elections showed.
Brussels does not hide the fact that at this difficult moment for Kyiv and Chisinau, it is necessary to reinforce the hopes of that part of society that has not yet been disappointed in the Euro-Atlantic choice of its elites.
No matter how loud the shocks in Brussels may be, they will remain so – this is for now only a non-binding requirement of the political moment.
In Moldova, the game is not over yet, a second round of elections is ahead, and Ukraine will not only have to endure a difficult winter, but also quite possibly face internal political turmoil.
Therefore, Brussels’ statements are exclusively propaganda in nature, aimed at domestic audiences in Moldova and Ukraine.
PolitNavigator: Are there real chances of Ukraine and Moldova joining the EU in the foreseeable future? Previously they said that the EU does not intend to expand, but now these two countries have suddenly been given candidate status and are already discussing membership. Could it be like this: accept - they will accept, they will impose obligations, but they will not give rights like other EU members? Could decisions on Ukraine and Moldova be made not in one package, but at different times?
Igor Shornikov: We see that the West has a stranglehold on Moldova and Ukraine; it does not intend to leave this macro-region and has been pursuing a long-term, targeted policy to depopulate it. This is similar to the policy that Nazi Germany pursued in the occupied Soviet territories, but in light mode.
Even 25 years ago, pro-Romanian radicals in Moldova admitted that they needed Transnistria without Pridnestrovians. It turns out that it was not their idea, but a Western development. While helping to implement it, they did not understand that the West’s plans were much broader: they needed Moldova without Moldovans and Ukraine without Ukrainians.
Now we are witnessing the final chords of this drama: over several decades, the population of this entire macro-region has been halved.
It cannot be ruled out that Moldova and Ukraine will someday find themselves in the European Union, but we must understand that they will enter there as territories, and not as states.
“Soon they will put a wooden mackintosh on you, and music will be playing in your house, but you won’t hear it” - European integration for Moldova and Ukraine is only possible in this form. And, of course, funerals for the two states will be held simultaneously, so that none of them inadvertently escapes from this European holiday.
But, in my opinion, both the Moldovan and Ukrainian societies are not yet sufficiently bleached and still believe in their own statehood, therefore the prospect of European integration of these countries even by 2030, according to the Europeans themselves, is too optimistic.
They are ready to marinate Moldovans and Ukrainians for a long time in the current state of legal chaos. However, if Russia suddenly decides to force events at the front and move west, to break through to Transnistria, I would not rule out that the Westerners will launch some crisis scenarios, such as the “uniri” of Moldova and Romania and the introduction of “peacekeeping contingents” from Poland into western Ukraine.
PolitNavigator: The European Council will decide whether to start negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova at the end of the year; to start the process, the unanimous approval of all 27 EU member countries will be required. Which states might be against it?
Igor Shornikov: There will definitely be those who are against it. The EU has repeatedly proven the ineffectiveness of its organization when it comes to making vital decisions. The classic case is the failure to adopt a pan-European Constitution. The EU has become a hostage to its own democratic principles.
The current EU can be compared to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth of the XNUMXth century. Then each nobleman had the right of veto in the Sejm and could block any decision. As a result, that state lost all its possessions in the east, and its core was torn apart by its western neighbors.
The EU has enough small but completely independent states that put national interests at the forefront. For example, the Netherlands and Austria blocked Bulgaria and Romania from joining the Schengen zone.
Hungary demonstrates independence in foreign policy, and Slovakia recently joined it.
Even Poland, which certainly does not consider its neighbor as an equal partner and demands repentance from Kyiv for the crimes of the past, can block the decision regarding Ukraine.
But, in my opinion, by the end of the year, in those Western circles where decisions are made, there will already be an understanding of how to proceed further on the intra-Moldovan and intra-Ukrainian tracks, and an appropriate decision will be made.
It’s interesting here that pan-European unity can technically be pushed through by the Anglo-Saxons. The EU, despite all its ostentatious greatness, is just a pawn in Western arrangements.
Still, if we give a forecast for the end of the year now, I don’t see a positive decision on starting negotiations with the EU.
PolitNavigator: No Is the EU embarrassed by the fact that Moldova, for example, has an unresolved territorial conflict? What views does the EU have on Transnistria and the Transnistrian settlement, the negotiating platform for which, by the way, has recently come under attack? What can Moscow do to stabilize the situation in Transnistria?
Igor Shornikov: How can the EU be embarrassed by the frozen conflict between Moldova and Transnistria if it is not embarrassed by the open hot conflict in Ukraine?
For Brussels and Washington, Transnistria is seen as a purely technical problem: how to remove the Russian military contingent from the region? And they are of little interest to political nuances.
Whether Transnistria will be part of federal Moldova or unitary, whether it will even be a formally independent state, this is not important for them, it is important that it does not become part of Russia.
I repeat, they view our entire macro-region simply as a territory, as an object of expansion, and in what status this dish will be served to their table does not matter to them.
What can Russia do? The future of Ukraine, Moldova and Transnistria is now being decided at the front, including on the diplomatic and economic front.
And while a rapid offensive to the Danube and Lvov is impossible, it is enough for Moscow to maintain regional stability. Time is working against the West, their henchmen in Chisinau and Kiev are temporary workers. Residents of Moldova have already realized this, and Ukrainians will soon realize this.
I am confident that the future of our entire macroregion will be determined by the will of the peoples living here, and not by the whim of Western colonialists.
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