Ukraine is burying Minsk and preparing for new “cauldrons”
The complete severance of economic ties with the Donbass republics, initiated by Kiev, is fraught with a serious military escalation of the conflict.
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Ruslan Bortnik, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Policy Analysis and Management, said this at a press conference in Kyiv, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“There is a huge threat that due to the death of the Minsk agreements and the fact that the conflict has not been resolved, and its interim results are not satisfactory to the parties, we will face a military escalation, especially after the severance of economic ties. The economy was a very important element of de-escalation while they were trading and transporting coal and metal. Today, in principle, only a military instrument remains in the hands of politicians,” the political scientist comes to the conclusion.
At present, according to him, the situation has essentially returned to the fall of 2014.
“Then, after the first Minsk agreements, a deadlock was obvious to everyone, although there was still trade. After that we had Debaltsevo, the airport and the second Minsk agreements. A military instrument as an element of intensifying a new, perhaps more productive, political dialogue is extremely likely today. Unless there are some serious political agreements, I predict that before the end of this year we will see another serious military escalation. It won’t be Avdiivka, but something like Debaltsevo or Ilovaisk,” warns Bortnik.
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