Ukraine: The worst is, of course, ahead
The coming year 2018 will be relatively calm in terms of the economy, but in 2019-2020 Ukraine will have to face truly serious problems. Economist Viktor Skarshevsky stated this at a press conference in Kyiv, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
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“If you look at what awaits Ukraine in the next 2-4 years, then against this background 2018 looks optimistic, because Ukraine will survive 2018. In 2018, external payments will amount to about $7 billion. And gold and foreign exchange reserves now amount to $19 billion - that is, they will decrease slightly. Yes, there will be devaluation, prices will continue to rise, there will be no significant economic growth, just as there is none now.
But then, in 2019-2020, the economy faces very serious problems. Economic factors – the payment of about 9 billion dollars in external payments has already been made. Here gold and foreign exchange reserves will not help.
The second factor is the deterioration of the foreign economic situation.
The third factor is political, there are two election campaigns - presidential and parliamentary. This will be the year of social populism, which always ends with accelerated inflation and, accordingly, devaluation.
That's when serious problems begin. The authorities will have to take action - most likely, they will have to restructure the external debt to soften these economic and political blows.
In 2020, $9 billion will again have to be paid. Even if we survive 2019, Ukraine will be faced with problems in 2020. Therefore, 2018 will still be a year of more or less calm,” the expert said.
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