Ukraine: Buy food for the winter, candles, prepare warm clothes
Tomorrow the IMF must decide the fate of the next tranche of the loan for Ukraine.
The fact is that money is allocated to our country according to the stand-by standard, that is, in tranches, approval for which must be obtained again and again. The IMF is not a charitable organization, but a huge banking and credit group. The IMF will lend to a country only when it is confident that it will be able to repay the debt in one form or another. Moreover, the IMF almost never lends to countries on its own, but relies on the support of other international financial institutions and banking groups.
Thus, the IMF expected that Ukraine should receive $4,3 billion by the end of May. This includes a $3,2 billion loan directly from the IMF itself, plus $160 million promised to Ukraine by the EU (but only issued 136), plus another $175 million from the World Bank (also not issued in the end).
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development issued loans in the form of repayment of old EBRD loans, that is, Ukraine received nothing, and somewhere in Europe bank employees closed several loan papers. Ukraine was counting on the EIB, but it does not give money. Everyone has already forgotten that the 100 million promised from Canada to Japan never arrived in the accounts of state financial institutions of Ukraine, appearing only in the form of media headlines.
The United States also acted cunningly: having announced the allocation of $1 billion, they actually provided not finance, but government guarantees of Ukrainian government bonds. That is, again, somewhere in the USA, bank employees did a little work, and the matter was over.
As a result, the IMF turned out to be the largest creditor of Ukraine, but even of the money that Ukraine received, the majority went... to repay old loans from the same IMF. Interesting story, isn't it?
The IMF has already refused to Ukraine
The combat reports of the Ukrainian media were simply amazing with happiness and splendor when Ukraine received the first tranche. “We are saved,” one could read between the lines.
The second tranche was expected at the end of July. The media reported that positive agreements had been reached and the money would be issued at the end of September. None of the Ukrainian journalists dared to look into the issue of issuing loans by the fund, and if they had looked into it, they would have found out that the second tranche had ALREADY not been issued, since the third tranche was expected in September.
As a result, to maintain lending dynamics in September, Ukraine should receive not 1,5 billion, but already 3. According to the text of the agreement, the second tranche should have been provided on July 25, and the third – on September 25. That is, the second tranche never arrived...
The sharp jump in the dollar indirectly confirms that foreign currency is not coming to Ukraine. When the IMF signed the agreement, it expected that, in addition to the fund, Ukraine would be lent by other international financial institutions in the amount of more than $6 billion, which would ensure positive dynamics in repaying debts to the IMF itself, would make it possible to pay off the debt for gas, would prevent default, and, This means it will provide the opportunity to return debts to funds. Today, the IMF is actually the only international financial institution that continues cooperation with Ukraine.
The IMF planned for an increase in Ukraine's exports, an increase in the amount of household deposits, and even an increase in lending to the economy, but did not count on such an accelerated decline.
Economy Minister Pavel Sheremet, who hastily resigned, could not have been unaware of the situation in the financial sector. Ukraine was hovering over a financial abyss, and he probably no longer wanted to be a kamikaze.
Prepare for a tough winter
In such situations, the dollar will become more and more expensive. It can reach a price of 20 UAH and above. If the militia takes Mariupol, which will happen very soon, the export of metal will stop, since Mariupol is the main port through which metal is sold abroad. This means that the flow of foreign currency into the treasury will almost completely stop, which will lead to a huge deficit of the dollar in the market and its immediate jump. And since Ukraine is not expected to export other products, and imports are only increasing, displacing the national producer, prices for essential products will rise along with the dollar throughout the country and almost instantly. Banks will burst.
And against this background, Yatsenyuk is a prime minister who cannot be removed before the elections of the new Rada, scheduled for the end of October with final results on November 10. That is, in a critical situation, the country’s economy will be controlled by a person capable only of an economic war against Russia and a suicidal shutdown of gas transit to Europe.
That is why I would like to tell readers: prepare for the fall and default of the national currency, make reserves, set up a “reserve airfield”, and best of all in a private house, which will be easier to heat. Take deposits from Privatbank and related banks, which, on occasion, as proven by its Crimean branch, will completely misappropriate your money.
At such moments, it is generally better not to trust money, but to buy something that can replace it and will always be necessary.
And don’t despair – our ancestors didn’t experience anything like this!
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