Is Ukraine incapable of reformatting? Then it will be eliminated!
Personally, I have no doubt about it and have been saying this publicly for many years: a state called Ukraine has no future. Maybe this year, or maybe in five years, it will be liquidated. Yes, even in ten or twenty, but this ending is still inevitable.
Most of its current territories - Novorossiya and Little Russia - will become part of the Russian Federation, just as Crimea was included, because these are historical Russian lands. I would like the liquidation to go faster, but there are realities that we Russians still have to reckon with. Alas, no matter how much we would like otherwise, Russia is still too weak to make a radical break with the West. We need to seriously prepare for this.
Therefore, Russia has to find ways to move forward in the liquidation of Ukraine, but at the same time do it in a way that, as they say, is not very noticeable.
Minsk-2 is such a method.
I consider the attempts of Russian armchair patriots to present Minsk-2 as some kind of betrayal of the interests of the Russian people of Novorossiya and the draining of the “Novorossiya project” itself as stupidity.
Yes, the bestial behavior of the Ukrainian army and Nazi punitive battalions continues, both in the occupied territories of Donbass (a clear example of this is the behavior of the leadership and fighters of the Tornado battalion), as well as the constant shelling of Donetsk, Gorlovka and other populated areas of the DPR and LPR. Civilians are dying, houses and urban infrastructure are being destroyed. This makes my heart bleed.
However, as we see, no Minsk-2 prevents the DPR and LPR from responding harshly to the Ukrainians, up to and including conducting full-scale army operations such as “squeezing out” Debaltseve this winter, when they begin to become impudent. I have no doubt that such operations will be repeated this year. It’s just that Ukraine needs to be permanently taught good manners.
So, why did the Russian patriotic bureaucracy, the initiator of the Russian Reconquista, which began in 2014, agree to Minsk-2? What does he give her? Why is this beneficial for Russia today?
We must understand that Moscow is well aware of the difference between the United States and Europe. It is impossible to come to an agreement with America, since it was the latter that started this whole mess with Euromaidan and the war. With Europe, in the end, despite its allied relations with the United States, and despite the Russophobia of a significant part of its population, it is possible to come to an agreement. Moreover, to ultimately agree on the liquidation of Ukraine. But for this you need to go through several stages. Minsk-2 is this stage. Beginners.
During the war, Stalin also saw the difference between Hitler and King Michael, between Hitler and Marshal Mannerheim, and therefore he compromised with Romania and Finland so that they would withdraw from the war, which weakened Nazi Germany.
Russia, fully aware that, unfortunately, it does not have the ability to liquidate Ukraine with one quick military operation, decided to play the long game. The Russian patriotic bureaucracy wants to play on the fact that the European bureaucracy is terrified of a full-scale war on the territory of Ukraine. In Berlin and Paris they are well aware that in comparison Yugoslavia will seem like something so local and frivolous: here is the threat of the Third World War, and millions of refugees, and processes that are no longer controlled by anyone or anything, and the threat of energy transportation, and many other troubles .
It is precisely such catastrophic prospects that make her more accommodating. Therefore, its position is not as radical as America’s, which is why it is categorically against the desire of the American establishment to supply Ukraine with lethal weapons.
Europe is categorically against the militarization of Ukraine, and this makes it to some extent an ally of Russia, encouraging it to compromise with the latter. Minsk-2 is such a compromise.
Russia’s main task, as I understand it, is the following: it wants Minsk-2 to demonstrate to Europe first Ukraine’s inability to negotiate, and then, as a way out, get Berlin and Paris to agree to the liquidation of Ukraine, letting them realize that the only alternative to this solution is a full-scale war.
How will all this “bringing sense” to Europe take place? Let me explain, Minsk-2 involves a complete reformatting of Ukraine and generally its liquidation in its previous form: from the former unitary pro-Western Ukraine, it should in theory turn into neutral Bosnia-2. All of its regions should actually receive the special status of “separate districts of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions,” and not just the DPR and LPR. At the same time, we must understand that there will be no elections in Donbass according to Ukrainian laws, no one will transfer the border under the control of Kyiv, and the armies of the DPR and LPR will not be disarmed.
This is supported by the story of the refutation of information about Moscow’s alleged desire to go with Kiev to Minsk-3.
Let me remind you that when in mid-June an article appeared in the Kiev newspaper Vesti with reference to an anonymous Ukrainian diplomatic source that Moscow allegedly made new proposals to Kiev that the DPR and LPR would unite, and elections would be held on their territory with the participation of Ukrainian political parties, then the Russian patriotic bureaucracy, in the person of political scientist Alexei Chesnakov, close to the Kremlin, refuted this information - there will be no Minsk-3.
Firstly, Moscow made it clear that there were no such proposals from the Kremlin at all. Secondly, it is impossible to do what “Vesti” attributed to Moscow, because it would mean “draining Novorossiya.” This is all a canard or a special hoax to test the reaction of official Russia.
So the only thing the Kremlin wants from Kyiv is strict compliance with the Minsk agreements, which means not just an end to the war, but also, as mentioned above, a complete reformatting of Ukraine.
The question is: will Kyiv agree to this? Never! Kiev understands perfectly well that going for the full implementation of the Minsk agreements means the liquidation of Ukraine. This means that Kyiv will sabotage Minsk-2, which is what Moscow wants to convey to Europe.
The logic here is clear: since Ukraine is not capable of reformatting, then it must be liquidated. And Europe will eventually have to agree to the liquidation of Ukraine. This is the simple truth of Minsk.
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