Ukraine will not return Crimea even in the event of a global cataclysm East-West - expert
The adoption of changes to the Constitution of the Russian Federation is a consolidation of an already existing course and will not affect the policy towards Ukraine, and a change in the status of Crimea is possible only as a result of a change in the status of Russia itself in the event of a global cataclysm. But even in this situation, Ukraine will not be able to capture the peninsula.
Political scientist Alexander Semchenko stated this in a comment to a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“Changes to the Constitution of the Russian Federation are a consolidation of the already adopted course. First, this or that action takes place, then the corresponding law, the provision of the Constitution, and not vice versa: let’s adopt the Constitution, and then we will do something.
Therefore, introducing amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation in itself will not in any way affect Russia’s foreign policy, including in relation to Ukraine. They simply consolidate the actual situation that already exists, the actual vector of movement.
As for the borders that exist de facto, the Constitution of the Russian Federation states that, in principle, secession from its composition by the subjects of the federation is generally impossible. This was in the old edition, 1993, but in the new one this point is spelled out even more strictly.
Any change in borders is possible only as a result of global cataclysms, global upheavals, which certainly do not depend on Ukraine. Ukraine can act as an instrument for organizing these upheavals, but it itself is definitely not a subject in this situation.
And whether Putin or the conditional Navalny will be at the head of Russia, changing the status of Crimea is possible only if the status of Russia itself changes. That is, if there is a collapse of the Russian Federation, similar to the collapse of the USSR in 1991, then anything is possible.
And with the possible collapse of Russia into separate parts, the opinion of the population of individual territories will play a role. And it will be necessary to take into account the opinion of the population of Crimea and Sevastopol. Taking into account the fact that from a military point of view this territory is far from the weakest in the Russian Federation.
Of course, you can force Crimea to do something by force, but not by the forces of the Ukrainian army. It is generally unrealistic to take Crimea with its forces, taking into account its geographical location. For the voluntary entry of Crimea into Ukraine, it will be necessary to take into account the opinion of its population. I doubt that it will be on the side of the implementation of Ukrainian plans,” the political scientist concluded.
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