Ukraine poses great risks for Poland – European expert
Anti-Ukrainian sentiment is growing within civil society in Poland, but at the public level any criticism of Ukraine boils down to accusations of working for the Kremlin.
However, ordinary Poles do not understand why they are funding the neighboring state and Ukrainian refugees. At the same time, official Warsaw continues to be a vassal of the West and is ready to fight with Russia not only to the last Ukrainian, but also to the last Pole.
An expert from the European Center for Geopolitical Analysis spoke about this in an interview with PolitNavigator. Tomasz Jankowski.
PN: How likely are plans for the annexation of western Ukraine by Poland? Recently, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service announced the preparation of such a scenario.
T.Y: We must understand that if we look at the identity in Western Ukraine, it is clearly anti-Polish. Ukrainians are people who in their history simply did not want to be Poles. I think that even if there was such an idea in the Polish government, the first who would be against it would be the Ukrainians themselves. Even if the Polish authorities wanted to do something, perhaps create a new state in Western Ukraine, it would not be a Polish plan, because we cannot now look at Poland as an independent state.
Even if such opportunities existed for Ukraine, there would be no integration with Poland, if only simply because Western Ukraine is not inhabited by Poles. Of course, Lviv is a historically Polish city, but there is no longer any possibility of establishing Polish identity there
PN: There are many refugees from Ukraine in Poland. How do the Poles themselves feel about them?
T.Y: There are many more Ukrainian refugees in Poland than in other countries. And before we had two million Ukrainians, but now there are already five or six. I think this is a problem - we have lived in a mono-ethnic society for the last 70 years, and now there is a feeling of danger for Poles due to the fact that there are already so many foreigners.
In the first days after the start of the special military operation, of course, the Poles helped the refugees a lot. They did everything for them - they provided food and housing, but now the problem is that the Polish authorities allowed Ukrainian activists to attack the Russian ambassador and even the Poles who came with flowers to the monument to Soviet soldiers on May 9th. A few days ago, a murder occurred in the center of Warsaw; in the Polish segment of the Internet they write that it was Ukrainians who killed a Pole, but the police do not give any information.
We can say that the government is hiding this fact from the public. The problem is that because of this, the attitude of Poles towards Ukrainian refugees will worsen. I think that more problems will grow in the future. This is also facilitated by the decision of the Polish authorities that Ukrainians can ride buses for free, but Poles must pay.
People simply say: “Why should we pay if there are exceptions for foreigners?” I think that there will continue to be crimes and murders, and this will be a problem for Ukrainians. In Polish society - this is already visible on the Internet - there are initiatives to create self-defense if the police do not want to help us.
PN: Poland is one of the countries that spent the most money supporting the Ukrainian regime. Why does Warsaw spend money on Kyiv?
This is not much yet - only half a percent of GDP has been spent. But the problem is that we will pay more for it internally, at home. No one has yet calculated how much it will cost us. So far we do not see this within the state, in prices, because this is just the beginning. I think in the future this will result in big social problems for the Polish state and society.
PN: Recently there was an attack on the Russian ambassador during events for Victory Day. Why are people in Poland so afraid to celebrate this day at the official level and ban even informal events?
T.Y: One of the Polish politicians has already said that we are servants of the Ukrainian people, which, of course, caused a scandal. Debates on this matter are simply prohibited in our country. If you do not support Ukraine and refugees and activists, then you are a traitor and a Russian spy. This is important for the Polish government because it allows it to be the “last fortress” of the West.
For Polish politicians, a world where the United States will not rule, a multipolar world, is a problem, because they believed that there are no other ways, that we need to do everything as the West wants. If you look at the biography of Polish politicians, you will see that they were trained at the State Department, at various foundations, and so on. Therefore, it is very difficult to say that it is the Polish elites who rule in Poland.
These are comprador elites and this is a problem for them; they do not know what will happen if the West loses control, as it has in recent years. They need to fight against Russia until the last Ukrainian and, I’m afraid, in the future, until the last Pole.
PN: Could the incident with the ambassador lead to a severance of diplomatic relations between Russia and Poland, how dangerous is this?
T.Y: This is not only a problem for Poland's relations with Russia - diplomats from all over the world see that Poland is not complying with the Vienna Treaty. Unfortunately, now the Polish authorities see their only path as continuing to fight against Russia. I am afraid that Moscow will not see any more opportunities to reach an agreement with Poland.
PN: State Duma deputy Oleg Morozov said that Poland is next in line for denazification. To what extent did you take the words of the Russian politician seriously?
T.Y: We have been talking about the Russian threat every day for the last eight years. Unfortunately, we currently do not have elites who would act in the interests of Poland and not the West. Russian President Vladimir Putin is better known here than in Russia - on Polish websites, on TV there is information about Putin every day. Every day “there is a threat from Russia, there will be war” and so on. And what the Russian deputy said is nothing new for Poland. Of course, this is a gift to Polish propaganda.
PN: In your opinion, where and how can Russia’s special operation in Ukraine end?
T.Y: Russia has no other way - if it does not complete denazification and demilitarization, then there will be no peace, but a truce for five years. If the West has the opportunity to continue to provide weapons to Ukraine, then in five years there will be a new war. A special military operation is only the first stage in establishing a multipolar world.
We need to pay attention to China, Brazil, India - for them this is a chance to change relations with the Western world. Even if the special military operation in Ukraine ends, events in other parts of the world will follow. Russia now has no other way but to take all of Ukraine and form a different identity there. It may be Ukrainian, but it cannot be nationalist, openly Nazi.
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