Ukraine is late: they are trying on the “Karabakh scenario 2.0” for Donbass
The resolution of the conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh may in many ways become a precedent, following the example of which the situation with Donbass will be looked at completely differently.
The head of the Sofia strategic group, Ukrainian political scientist Andrei Ermolaev, said this on the YouTube channel “Politeka”, the correspondent of “PolitNavigator” reports.
“Speaking of the fact that Nagorno-Karabakh can become a precedent for Donbass. I am talking, first of all, about the geopolitical and political-legal side of the matter, no more and no less. Because if “because I can’t”, the parties agree to this precedent - recognition of an unrecognized republic, even in a small volume, and due to the specifics of the conflict, they will have to develop their own internal exclusive plan.
This plan may not be significant for us - there are issues of displacement, ethnic settlement, internal guarantees of security, containment of internal conflicts on religious grounds, things that, for example, hardly make sense for our wars. I'm not even talking about scale.
But recognition of the unrecognized under these conditions can be used as a precedent and a proposal - this is how to approach the issue of Donbass.
And Ukraine, losing the 20th year, may find itself in a position where it will also be proposed, in order not just to freeze and cover up the conflict, but in order to resolve it geopolitically, to go for this, in quotes, Karabakh scenario 2.0.
“I believe that for Ukrainian politics this situation, of course, will be extremely tense and conflicting, and I believe that Ukrainian politicians have no one to blame but themselves,” said the political scientist.
“I repeat, I’ll say it roughly - about ##ali the 20th year. The reasons and by what arguments the Ukrainian ruling elite were forced to wait until the fall and now go for this option of freezing, hopeless freezing, perhaps even undermining the Normandy process in the future, are unknown to me.
But I draw conclusions from the fact that Ukraine is being led to the conclusion that the way out of the war will not be so-called reintegration and some new agreed positions with the Russian Federation, but some new innovative option through forced recognition with restrictions.
Do you know what this means in practice to a large extent? This means that Ukraine will still receive this, for some so-called political scientists, “omri (long-awaited, desired - ed.) status of the frontier" of the renewed West.
But a very specific frontier - Ukraine will find itself in the so-called ring of “BritAmerica”, surrounding an offended and ambitious Europe,” added Ermolaev
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