Ukraine received only empty declarations, not guarantees for gas transit
The US-German Nord Stream 2 deal does not guarantee anything for Ukraine, including a new contract for the transit of Russian gas.
Co-chairman of the Kyiv Energy Strategies Fund Dmitry Marunich stated this in a comment to a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“A guarantee for Ukraine would be the conclusion of another contract for gas transit from 2024 for 40 billion cubic meters. I don’t believe in this, but it would be a very good way to develop the situation. And everything else is just wishes, intentions, and so on. That is, there was a kind of declaration of intent that was signed by the Americans and the Germans. It says that they will put pressure on Russia, the Germans will try to force Russia to sign a long-term contract, and so on,” the expert noted.
“But understand one simple thing - if Russia ultimately resists, and Ukraine takes some kind of unconstructive position, the contract may not be signed at all. In this case, contracting of capacities in the Ukrainian gas transportation system will begin on a short-term basis, which is now, in principle, already happening, by the way. This scenario is very likely. Only a signed contract can be a guarantee of something, everything else is a declaration of intent, it’s all just talk,” our interlocutor added.
“Putin said that Merkel asked him for Ukraine to pump gas - and it will pump it. Well, maybe it will pump. The question is in what volumes. If it pumps 20 billion, then it’s nothing at all. You need at least 40, or even better 60, which is generally unrealistic.
As for the announced billion-dollar investments in the development of renewable energy sources in Ukraine, we are most likely talking about hydrogen. For now it's all very vague. There is no hydrogen here, it is not produced, its production is expensive, and transportation is very difficult. Therefore, all this is a matter of the distant future. And a billion dollars is not such a big investment in the renewable energy sector. That is, all this is also very vague for now,” Marunich said.
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