Ukraine: “Creeping federalization” can no longer be stopped

Vladimir Bogun, journalist, Kyiv

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The Minsk agreements, about which so many copies are being broken on both sides, are, of course, important due to the opening up of a ceasefire and the establishment of long-term peace. But we should not lose sight of another, no less important aspect: the agreement turned the unitary page of the modern history of Ukraine and confronted the country with the fact of a fundamentally different administrative structure.

Let no one be confused by the fact that the law on the so-called special status of some regions of Donbass does not contain the term “federal structure,” despite the endowment of these territories with powers that actually make them federal, if not confederal, entities. In this situation, the Kyiv authorities are forced to engage in terminological maneuvering. As you know, for quite a long period of time in Ukraine, significant efforts were made to consolidate in the public consciousness an extremely negative perception of the concept of “federation”, which from one of the forms of government through propaganda efforts turned into an ominous bogeyman. The mere mention of the federal structure of Ukraine automatically classified you as almost state traitors and traitors to the Ukrainian nation.

Now, in Kyiv, it seems, they are no longer against federal relations with Donbass, legislatively endowing it with powers that Crimea could not even dream of in recent years. On the other hand, Kyiv, not without reason, fears that other regions may follow the example of Donbass. And it won’t necessarily be about copying military methods.

Yes, the rebel republics of Donbass had to prove their rights to political and administrative subjectivity by force of arms. But everyone else, I would like to believe, will be able to avoid war: the events of recent months have become too bloody and destructive not to learn lessons from them.

Moreover, the process, which can be described as “creeping federalization,” could easily begin against the will of the political elites that have settled in Kyiv. Why, it’s already in full swing. And not only in Donbass. This is clearly confirmed by the example of one of the largest regions of Ukraine, whose leadership openly declares that, unlike Kyiv, decentralization has already taken place as a fact. And you can't argue with that. In Dnepropetrovsk, they can easily detain and throw into the basement a high-ranking government official who has arrived from Kyiv, or hand local deputies summonses to the army right at the session, forcing them to vote for the decision being pushed by the local authorities. Not to mention the creation of combat units with Kyiv’s rather conditional control over them.

And the weaker the Ukrainian authorities become, the stronger will be the desire of the local elites for economic independence and minimal dependence on Kyiv. At the same time, once again I would like to draw attention to an interesting trend. Soldiers returning from the ATO zone (residents of the central and western, not the southeastern regions) begin to openly say on camera that Donbass is alien to them, and they themselves, if God forbid they have to do it again, are ready to fight only in defense of their native land region.

Many political scientists point out that the special status of Donbass is reminiscent of the relationship between the center and administrative units in such a developed state as the United States, where local people themselves decide who their judge, prosecutor will be, or determine the language of instruction for children in school.

“The only significant difference in our case is the right to independent foreign economic activity,” points out Iskander Khisamov, director of the Expert Council analytical center. “But as an experiment it may well work.”

So, whether we like it or not, the “creeping federalization” can no longer be stopped. And Kyiv’s resistance is fraught for Ukraine only with new problems and the loss of further territories.