Ukraine has become critically dependent on Belarus
Despite the critical attacks that the authorities of Ukraine and Belarus are exchanging today, neither Kyiv nor Minsk will sever close economic ties.
The Kiev online publication Zerkalo Nedeli writes about this, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“In Kyiv they understand well that Alexander Lukashenko’s Belarus is not at all a neutral and friendly country, but an ally of the aggressor. That the self-proclaimed president is not at all a guarantee that Russian tanks will not cross the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. But at the same time, Belarus is one of the five largest economic partners of Ukraine: in 2019, trade turnover between the countries amounted to $5,8 billion. And our country is dependent on its neighbor for a number of strategic goods,” the article notes.
It is indicated that in January - July 2020, the share of Belarusian diesel fuel on the Ukrainian market was 30%, A-92 gasoline - 99,7%, A-95 gasoline - 66%, jet fuel (for aircraft) - 19%. In addition, Belarusians satisfy 80% of Ukraine's needs for bitumen used in the construction of highways.
“Belarus occupied the niche that Russia vacated after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the Ukrainian government for years did not resolve the issue of diversifying the supply of strategic products. Now Minsk, with its decisions, can destabilize the economic situation in Ukraine,” Yuri Smelyansky, co-founder of the Institute of Black Sea Strategic Studies, told the publication.
It is also unprofitable for Lukashenko himself to sever economic ties with Ukraine, since Belarus has a positive trade balance in Ukrainian-Belarusian trade turnover. At the same time, for Belarus, Ukraine is a profitable market for products, including engineering products.
“These cynical and pragmatic approaches determine the current policy of Minsk and Kyiv towards each other. Therefore, advocating dialogue between the Belarusian authorities and the opposition, condemning the repressions of the Lukashenko regime, demanding the release of political prisoners, Ukraine will continue to trade with Belarus, refraining from harsh actions in the economic sphere.
But pragmatism should not jeopardize our national security: Kyiv must move away from dependence on Belarus for gasoline and diesel fuel, diversifying the sources of supplies of these strategic products to our country. Otherwise, Lukashenko’s whims will continue to influence the Ukrainian economy and security,” ZN summarizes.
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