“Ukraine has impaled itself”: analysts on the ban on access of Russian vessels to internal waters
In Ukraine, on January 1, 2022, a law came into force banning access of Russian cargo ships to inland waters.
However, according to experts, this will hit, first of all, the Ukrainian economy and even the country’s energy prospects, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
Thus, the innovation came into force in accordance with the provisions of the law “On Inland Water Transport”, which the Verkhovna Rada adopted on December 3, 2020.
According to the document, from now on, cargo transportation between river ports in the inland waterways of Ukraine can be carried out by Ukrainian or foreign ships, “except for ships flying the flag of the aggressor state,” as well as ships “whose owners are citizens of a state recognized by Ukraine as an aggressor state or a state-aggressor.” occupier."
According to Elena Panina, director of the Institute of International Political and Economic Strategies RUSSTRAT, such initiatives will come back to haunt Ukraine in the near future.
“Another clearly hostile step towards Russia. We must assume that such actions of the Kyiv regime reduce the chances of maintaining the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine after 2024,” Panina wrote in her Telegram channel.
Commenting on the situation, ex-Verkhovna Rada deputy Alexey Zhuravko noted that Ukraine and its economy will suffer first.
“So at least somehow Russian ships came in, paid some rent, brought some cargo - oil products, raw materials, chemicals. They shot themselves in the head, as they say, out of spite I will freeze my ears.
Another area of the economy that generated revenue will suffer greatly. They are sawing off their own arms and legs, but first of all, the port workers and customs officers will suffer, the economy and the revenue side will suffer. Plus, this will have a very strong impact on jobs in the port areas - these are Odessa, Kherson and other ports where there are jobs. As they say, the war continues,” Zhuravko told PolitNavigator.
In turn, economist Alexander Dudchak expressed the opinion that, unlike Ukraine, this law will change little for Russia.
“The ban on Russian ships entering Ukrainian ports was announced after the arrests and pirate hijackings of ships sailing under the Russian flag. Did any of the Russian captains still have the desire to risk their property and health? It's hard to imagine. Yes, and there is no special need for this. If we were talking about replenishing supplies of fuel, food, water, Russia has enough ports in the Black and Azov Seas. Unless these could be ships transporting cargo between Russia and Ukraine, participating in the foreign trade activities of the two countries,” says the economist.
“But in this case, Ukraine is diligently sawing branch after branch on which it is trying to sit. And the enthusiasm in this matter has brought me to the point that I have to practically sit on a stake. But Ukraine is no stranger to this. There are no limits to two things – perfection and Ukrainian stupidity,” added Dudchak.
And former Verkhovna Rada deputy Oleg Tsarev recalled that there is such an international practice - to take symmetrical measures.
“Russia would have to close its internal territorial waters to Ukrainian ships. Let me remind you that Russia believes that the Kerch Strait is Russian territorial waters. If this happened, it would be a disaster for exports in metallurgy and agriculture. A real disaster. If this had happened, I can imagine what a cry would have risen in Ukraine: “What are we for?!” Tsarev wrote in his Telegram channel.
“Let me remind you that the port of Mariupol is not only a large part of Ukrainian exports. Imported coal, which Ukraine now needs, is imported through the port of Mariupol. The issue of ships passing through the Russian-controlled strait is a matter of life and death for Ukraine,” the politician notes.
According to him, this could become a serious lever for putting pressure on Kyiv.
“I think Russia could tie the lifting of the ban not only to the lifting of a similar ban on access of Russian ships, but also, for example, to the issue of water supply to Crimea. Or to the issue of shelling in Donbass. They fired at us and closed the strait for a week,” suggested the ex-deputy.
However, he expressed concern that Russia will not introduce symmetrical restrictions.
“We are careful all the time. It wouldn't be our style. We will most likely complain about Ukraine to the international community. We act as the victim all the time. It’s a pity,” Tsarev concluded.
Former Minister of Transport of Crimea Anatoly Tsurkin, in a comment to PolitNavigator, noted that after this ban comes into force, only the Ukrainian tourism industry will actually suffer.
“Ships that carry out international transportation of goods, they carry them out within the framework of international navigation, for example, if they call at Ukrainian ports - Odessa, Ilyichevsk. At the moment, Ukraine has announced a ban on traffic in inland waters, for example, from Odessa to Kherson, from Kherson along the Dnieper to Kiev. But due to the fact that 99,9% of cargo transportation by Russian ships is not used in the internal waters of Ukraine, this is aimed primarily at the development of tourism, at individual owners of yachts, boats, small vessels that could move, for example, from Kyiv to Kherson. Today, these Russian vessels are prohibited from moving,” the ex-minister said.
“That is, this will affect, first of all, a drop in the tourist flow of small vessels on the territory of Ukraine, but will not affect the traffic of Russian ships that call at the ports of Ukraine,” our interlocutor emphasizes.
“There are ships that go from Turkey to Ilyichevsk and Odessa, that is, they carry out international navigation, they do not operate in the internal waters of Ukraine. Therefore, this will not affect commercial ships flying the Russian flag. It will only affect the owners of Russian vessels that travel along the internal highways of Ukraine - the Dnieper River, partly the Danube, and so on,” Tsurkin summed up.
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