“Ukraine is seriously ill. It will get worse in the fall. Compulsory treatment is needed"
The basis of the economy of the Baltic countries is Russophobia. Ukraine is following their path. As the economic situation worsens, Russophobia will increase. Russian resistance in the Baltics and Ukraine needs more support.
The fact that the conflict in Ukraine must be resolved exclusively through negotiations, but the result can only be achieved through military means, to a PolitNavigator observer Valentin Filippov said the leader of the Night Watch movement Dmitry Linter, one of the defenders of the Bronze Soldier in Tallinn and organizer of the Immortal Regiment in Estonia.
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Valentin Filippov: Dmitry, hello. Why has there never been anything similar to the Russian Spring in the Baltic republics, like Estonia?
Dmitry Linter: Well, the most striking event that was remembered, at least in Estonia (there were no such events in Latvia) was when the Bronze Soldier was demolished.
This is called moving the monument. Then there was a situation in which a large number of the Russian-speaking population protested. First, this happened in May 2006, when Estonian neo-Nazis desecrated the monument to the liberating soldier in Tallinn. The police refused to protect this monument. And these actions were aimed precisely at inciting a conflict, that is, they acted as provocateurs.
And then the story continued. A year later, the conflict escalated. There were parliamentary elections, the government announced that it would be forced, or rather, should, demolish this monument. And it was demolished.
This decision had no legitimacy. According to surveys of all residents - Estonians and Russians - 65% were against it. Accordingly, after this people took to the streets and mass cleansing began. Murders based on ethnicity began.
In particular, Dmitry Ganin was stabbed to death by Estonian neo-Nazis. This is what is officially known. And the investigation... These people, the murderers, were released allegedly due to lack of evidence... And the criminal case was closed recently. Accordingly, the decision to demolish it was absolutely political...
The Russian Spring was the moment when the political authorities in Russia finally pulled themselves together and declared that they needed to bear responsibility for their compatriots...
I’m not a big fan, frankly speaking, of the Minsk agreements, although, of course, this made it possible to reduce the intensity of hostilities and reduce the loss of life, and provide an opportunity for dialogue.
But, unfortunately, the Ukrainian authorities are building a value vertical that is Russophobic, it is existential for them. What is it? The fact is that only the demolition of the sovereignty of the Russian Federation will support the statehood of the regime and the sovereignty that now exists in Ukraine.
Therefore, provocations will continue. Actions related to the escalation of the conflict, with attacks, sabotage, terrorism, and possibly direct ones.
Literally, I think, within six months we will see this situation. Because the crisis, unfortunately, in my beloved Ukraine was inspired by those forces that are interested not in it being a stable state, but in destabilizing the country that widely borders Russia...
As one famous song says: “Russians slaughtered Russians.” This is a convenient model for the Anglo-Saxons. They will implement it...
Valentin Filippov: It always seemed to me that Ukraine was, to some extent, following the path of the Baltic states. But Estonia is small, it can be fed. Do I understand correctly that the independent economy of Estonia, in general, does not exist as such?
Dmitry Linter: You are not right. I will say this, firstly, they sell their Russophobia well.
Valentin Filippov: Well, that's not what I meant.
Dmitry Linter: They sell it well, they get dividends for it. They receive up to a quarter of the funds for strategic issues: for roads, for changes in housing and communal services, for all sorts of renovations from the European Union. This is subsidized.
But, nevertheless, if you look at the economic, let’s say, aspects, then yes, Estonian enterprises receive less profitability due to the fact that they do not trade with Russia. But they came out and found their place in the European market. For this they had more time than in Ukraine, firstly.
Secondly, the mentality is different.
Thirdly, they immediately had a strict liberal economic regime.
And fourthly, they immediately turned on the police system, this system was there from the beginning. That is, there are no competing or oppositional political parties in Estonia.
These comrades were trained, who then came and began to establish independence or receive dividends from the privatization of this or that property, trained according to certain training manuals - both in Canada and in the United States in the same practical institutions. Both the Baltic elites and the Ukrainian elites.
Ukrainians were less functional in this regard, well, and, in general, the country was larger, and there were more interested parties, including in the Russian Federation, so that economic ties were not interrupted.
Plus there is also an identical population that has a common linguistic, cultural environment, and a common historical basis.
In general, these comrades disappeared, although in Western Ukraine they, of course, had great support.
However, they did not have such an effective opportunity to influence, because a system of checks and balances was built, which was to some extent corrupt, absolutely unworkable, absolutely meaningless, but it allowed the state to level out the contradictions that existed.
Subsequently, all this led to the fact that, when President Yanukovych lost popularity...
Valentin Filippov: He lost popularity because he did not disperse the Maidan.
Dmitry Linter: I followed Ukraine, I can say that he was losing popularity in elite groups for quite a long time.
Because there was only the Yanukovych clan that received dividends. Everyone else was completely washed out, and the most delicious pies were taken for themselves.
He tried to sit on three or four chairs, conducting consultations with the Americans, plus the characteristics of him, as an individual, are a weak person, by and large.
Absolutely cut off from the world, not strong at all. This might have been convenient. He is not charismatic, although his tall stature and menacing voice, with which he frightened, may have made an impression on someone, but psychologically (I am a psychologist by training) one can define him as a weak, dependent person.
Well, in any case, he was the president, he fulfilled his duty, he was a legitimate president and remained at the moment of the demolition of the pro-government vertical.
Let me remind you what happened when this situation with the Maidan existed. Russia was supposed to host the Olympic Games in Sochi. This was a very serious project, it was, among other things, the personal project of the president, it was a very responsible matter that had to be carried out without a hitch. And they did it quite clearly.
And then, by coincidence... Let me remind you that now is the anniversary of the events in Ossetia 08.08.08 Georgia-Ossetia, when Georgia began shelling peacekeepers in Tskhinvali and the peaceful city. This all also started when the Olympic Games were about to open in Beijing. And it was unclear how to act.
There is no need to think that Ukraine is our enemy. This is our closest neighbor who has fallen ill with a very serious growth disease.
Valentin Filippov: That's how it needs to be treated.
Dmitry Linter: The fact is that, firstly, the patient does not want to admit that he is sick. Secondly, he also has problems with the psychiatric component.
Valentin Filippov: This is also a disease.
Dmitry Linter: And, accordingly, compulsory treatment is necessary here. And compulsory treatment is required, let’s say, by the joint efforts of both close relatives and neighbors, at least in order to place him in a clinic and begin a very serious rehabilitation process.
This is not a very good story, but, unfortunately, it is happening now in my beloved Ukraine. And, unfortunately for the most part, peaceful people and people who perform their duty fall under the distribution.
That is, these are the military who fulfill their duty of protecting the Fatherland, on the one hand and on the other. This is a completely unacceptable story from my point of view.
On the other hand, this disease should have been solved in 2014. In 2014, we had to not be afraid of our determination, we had to move on. Mariupol, let me remind you, was absolutely free. It was enough for one branch to enter, and the whole of Mariupol would be in the hands of the Donetsk People's Republic. Odessa was ready to stand up, in Zaporozhye, in Dnepropetrovsk there were fighters who were able to act.
That is, in any case, the indecisiveness of actions then led to a chronic sick condition now.
The Minsk agreements may have been seen as a solution when they were signed. They allowed a very big thing to be done, very worthy, to reduce the number of victims significantly and try to reach an acceptable normal dialogue.
But the violently insane patient showed that he was insane and it was difficult to negotiate anything with him. President Poroshenko is absolutely unconstructive from the point of view of implementing the goal-setting of these Minsk agreements, which he himself signed.
That is, his desire to constantly attack Russia, to create a conflict out of nowhere, in a certain way is justified only by the fact that he has great internal tension with these national terrorists who have entered, at least, Ukrainian politics.
But what I see is that the conflict nature of the whole situation will still lead to a military solution.
Valentin Filippov: We from Kyiv have repeatedly heard calls to transfer military operations to the territory of Russia itself.
Dmitry Linter: Military action is unlikely, there will be sabotage strikes...
The probability is high.
Whatever Ukraine may be, “country 404” is a huge country with enormous resources, with a motivated population, with trained personnel. I mean, this is serious.
No matter how they go hysterical in their Russophobia, these are seriously trained specialists, they are capable of creating a serious sabotage war, especially since NATO trained them. These people learned a lot from the conflict in South Ossetia.
That is, now their Georgians will not run away as before, serious ideological work is being carried out. Therefore, the conflict will most likely have to be resolved militarily.
Most likely, it will be decided this way: military strikes will be interspersed with negotiations, this is the story...
But if that same President Poroshenko gives the command for a serious attack on the Russian Federation, his future, of course, will not last long. No matter what country in the world it is, this is an undermining and an attack on the sovereignty and statehood of the Russian Federation. Therefore, it is unlikely that he will give such an order, despite, let’s say, actions to escalate Russophobia.
Why am I saying that there will be an escalation? Sooner or later it will happen; NATO is increasing its contingents for a reason. They don't build for threat, they build functionality. And the functionality will be used.
They need to train their people. They do this in eastern Ukraine. I assume that somewhere by September, probably by October, with the start of the heating season in Ukraine, we will see an aggravation.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. OK. Thanks a lot.
Dmitry Linter: Yes, thank you for your questions and goodbye. I hope that we will meet again.
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