Ukraine has already “lost consciousness” twice since the beginning of the year due to gas shortages
In Ukraine, gas reserves have already approached the critical withdrawal level twice since the beginning of the year, while export volumes are insufficient to cover the deficit, and the end of winter is still far away.
Co-founder of the Energy Strategies Fund Yuri Korolchuk writes about this in his blog on Korrespondent.net, PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
Naftogaz optimistically and happily reports on the import of 300 million cubic meters of gas in February and another 300 million cubic meters. m. in March. We made it! Boast about imported gas, which is enough for Ukrainians for two days of winter. To paraphrase Shevchenko (not a football player, but a poet), one can say: “Naftogaz has reached the very edge; children crucify him worse than a Poles.”
With a crazy gas shortage - probably for the first time in all the years of independence - Naftogaz pretends to be calm and convinces all of us, President Zelensky, the government that the meager imports are enough for us. Previously, we imported several billion cubic meters every winter month. Now we import a couple of hundred million cubic meters. And the reason is not only expensive gas,” writes the expert.
At the same time, Ukrtransgaz gas extraction data show that in the first three weeks of January 2022, Ukraine has already “lost consciousness” twice or was approaching a critical point in gas extraction.
These periods coincide with periods of frost, the expert notes.
“Peak consumption occurred on January 11-13 and January 20-22. Take a look at the weather archive and you will see how the increase in gas extraction is superimposed on the decrease in air temperature these days,” he writes.
The first cold snap on January 11-13 resulted in a jump in natural gas consumption, which exceeded 140 million cubic meters. m. Gas extraction from the underground gas storage facility these days amounted to 92 million cubic meters. The volume of gas produced did not change - 55,3 million cubic meters. But Ukraine was lucky; already on the old New Year’s Day, January 14, the temperature became sharply warmer, and the crisis subsided.
A new jump in gas consumption occurred during frosty weather on January 19-20. Then the country's consumption amounted to 137 million cubic meters. Gas withdrawal from gas storage facilities amounted to 85 million cubic meters. Production remained unchanged again – 53-55 million cubic meters. m per day.
“All these weeks, the technical possibility of lifting gas from underground storage facilities has been decreasing with a decrease in the total gas reserves in the underground gas storage facility. In February, Ukrtransgaz will be able to lift no more than 75-80 million cubic meters per day from storage facilities. What if February is frosty?
And consumption will exceed 135 million cubic meters? Then Ukraine cannot avoid a gas shortage. Restricting consumers or taking gas from a transit pipe - this is the scenario. This season, even Gordon, Dr. Komarovsky and ex-speaker Razumkov know about it,” writes Yuri Korolchuk.
Gas imports amount to 300 million cubic meters. m does not cover the needs. “During frosty peak periods, Ukrainians will burn these 300 million in a day and a half,” the expert warns.
At the same time, Russia is reducing gas transit. Europe, despite the decline in its reserves, is in no hurry to buy more through Ukraine.
“In such a situation, the prospect of disconnecting from gas supply, at a minimum, industrial, as well as heat and power generating companies, looks more than real. However, in such difficult times, citizens of Ukraine should not think about gas. All their opinions are occupied by the media “invasion of Russia”, which is actively fed to the population both from the West and within the country. This is how we live and shake with fear – from frost to frost,” the expert concluded.
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