“Ukraine will withstand a maximum of 3-4 months, even with the support of the West”
Moscow - Donetsk, September 02 (PolitNavigator, Sergey Stepanov) - The war in Donbass will be a conflict of attrition, but Ukraine will be able to hold out for a maximum of 3-4 months, even with the support of specialists and weapons from the West. About this in an interview "PolitNavigator" said a Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin.
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"PolitNavigator": Is it possible for Ukraine to attack Crimea?
Vladislav Shurygin: If there is no catastrophic development of the situation in Russia itself, then a military offensive by Ukraine on Crimea is completely ruled out. Simply because Ukraine does not even have the strength to really change the situation in the South, in Novorossiya. And even going to Crimea is simply suicide.
In Novorossiya, Ukraine faces only a militia, which cannot be called highly structured. And if Kyiv tries to invade Crimea, it will have an enemy in the form of the Russian Armed Forces, which are absolutely superior to the Ukrainian army in all respects.
"PolitNavigator": What does the return of Crimea give to Russia from a military point of view?
Vladislav Shurygin: For Russia, Crimea is a strategic territory, an unsinkable aircraft carrier in the most important direction for us. With Crimea we covered Russia from the south like a shield. We were driven into the farthest corner of the Black Sea - Novorossiysk, from where we had no operational capabilities. Now we completely control the entire Black Sea, the straits, the Mediterranean Sea, modern weapons allow this.
A large program has now been adopted to develop the military infrastructure of Crimea. A powerful group has been transferred here and is redeveloping the peninsula.
“PolitNavigator”: Mikheil Saakashvili, and then the Ukrainian side, have repeatedly stated that Moscow’s ultimate goal is to create a corridor to Transnistria. Is this really true?
Vladislav Shurygin: I think that's one of the goals, absolutely. But this is just a local goal. Moreover, Ukraine itself is forcing us to this goal. We see that Ukraine is violating all agreements related to the conflict around Transnistria and is trying to shake up the situation. We see what is happening in the last 2-3 years. In these conditions, you need to understand that the release of the PMR is one of the five strategic tasks, so to speak. But this is not the main task.
"PolitNavigator": What assistance is the West currently providing to the Ukrainian side?
Vladislav Shurygin: A huge number of volunteers from different countries are fighting. A real Nazi international. If you look at the Aidar battalion, you’ll see who’s there – from Belarusians to Spaniards, Italians and Americans. One of the latter was recently sent to zinc.
There are volunteers, and there are also private military companies. At the moment we know about the Poles. There are also foreign military specialists in the Ukrainian troops - while the same Americans and NATO members are working at the level of group headquarters.
I think this presence will expand as the war progresses to a stalemate. NATO and America have invested enormous amounts of money in this war. It is impossible to abandon a project in which you have invested 10 billion dollars.
PolitNavigator: What, besides consultants, can the West provide to help Kyiv?
Vladislav Shurygin: At the moment, the flow of ammunition and equipment is expanding - modern uniforms, body armor, night sights, protective equipment, thermal imagers, communications.
The next stage is the supply of weapons. So far, former Soviet weapons from the countries of the socialist camp are replacing those lost by Ukraine. Then, seeing that this equipment does not solve the problem, supplies of more modern equipment can begin - modern artillery systems, reconnaissance equipment, anti-tank weapons, etc.
NATO's presence will gradually increase - first the equipment, but its operation also requires specialists who will be transported there.
"PolitNavigator": Will this war last long?
Vladislav Shurygin: This conflict will have at least one stage - a war of attrition. It is now clear that a sharp military offensive will not solve anything. But Ukraine will be able to wage a war of attrition for a maximum of 3-4 months, even if the West helps a lot.
War consumes all resources. The fact that the war costs $4 million a day is nonsense. It is obvious to everyone that spending $71 on one fighting soldier is now fantastic. And now a group of about 60 thousand is fighting. In reality, Ukraine is throwing all the resources it receives – all the loans – into this war.
"PolitNavigator": Who is better at fighting in Donbass?
Vladislav Shurygin: There's nothing even to discuss here. It is quite obvious that the militias are superior by an order of magnitude. Because, firstly, they are much more professional, although they started with the Ukrainian army in approximately the same conditions.
Both of them had practically no military experience. Both the Ukrainian army and the Donbass army had the same weapons. But at the same time, the Donbass Defense Army received weapons one and a half months late compared to the Ukrainian one. But at the heart of it all lies motivation.
"PolitNavigator": Ukrainian nationalists also have great motivation.
Vladislav Shurygin: There is motivation, they are quite highly motivated. But the problem is that motivation alone is not enough, you need a system. But I don’t see a system in the security forces of Ukraine. They made a mistake that ruins the entire military operation: they divided the armed structure into two unequal parts - a professional army and paramilitary structures - all these battalions. As a result, those in the first structure were the most trained, and those in the second were the most motivated.
"PolitNavigator": Why didn't the American advisers point out the mistake?
Vladislav Shurygin: I think that Americans also do many things with wheels. It is obvious to everyone that no one planned the war a year ago. It’s just that each of the superpowers – Russia and the United States – reacted to the Ukrainian events.
“PolitNavigator”: What is in Russia’s interests – to preserve Donbass as part of federal Ukraine, to take it for itself, to grant independence?
Vladislav Shurygin: My point of view is that the interest is in maintaining Donbass as an autonomous entity with satellite relations with Russia. Because plunging Donbass into Russia now is geopolitically wrong. That part of the population that is currently fighting is not eager to immediately dissolve and become a simple region within the Russian Federation. The profit from this case is too small. People are fighting for the republic. This is a chance to not let into Novorossiya the worst that we have, for example, the same oligarchs.
"PolitNavigator": Donbass has enough oligarchs of its own.
Vladislav Shurygin: They have now sorted things out with their oligarchs. Because any war multiplies money by zero.
“PolitNavigator”: Couldn’t Russia organize propaganda in such a way as to solve its problems in the South-East without bloodshed?
Vladislav Shurygin: I think that this war could have been prevented altogether if there had been sane people in Kyiv.
"PolitNavigator": And the sane Russian ambassador?
Vladislav Shurygin: We have a problem with a sane ambassador. The current Russian Ambassador to Ukraine, in my opinion, is a disgrace that we remember from the times when he was our Minister of Health.
“PolitNavigator”: Why is he still being kept in the most important direction?
Vladislav Shurygin: This only shows how little Russia has been involved with Ukraine in recent years. Again, he says that Russia did not have any real multi-year plan for Ukraine. Russia missed Ukraine and began to react belatedly.
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