Ukraine has planted “time bombs” under the EU’s energy security
The Naftogaz of Ukraine company confirmed participation in a trilateral meeting on gas between the European Commission, Russia and Ukraine. During the meeting, the main topic will be the issue of gas transit to Europe through Ukrainian territory, Izvestia reports.
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According to the deputy head of the National Energy Security Fund, Alexei Grivach, who is quoted by the publication, the need for the meeting is due to the risks that exist today on the part of Ukraine regarding gas transit to European consumers.
“Ukraine has laid “time bombs” in the form of various decrees, orders and decisions: unjustified anti-monopoly fines, restructuring of the GTS (gas transport system) in the form of spinning off a gas transport operator and attempts to introduce new tariffs unilaterally. This whole snowball is rolling over the upcoming heating season. Most likely, European colleagues are concerned about this situation - as soon as winter sets in, the European Commission immediately adjusts its positions,” the expert noted.
“It’s not normal when the deputy head of the EC goes to negotiations so that one of the parties fulfills its contractual obligations,” Grivach added.
At the same time, he believes that in the conditions of a cold winter, Ukraine will be forced to purchase gas from Gazprom, since its own reserves and reverse capabilities will not be enough to pass consumption peaks.
In turn, Deputy General Director of the Institute of National Energy Alexander Frolov explains Europe’s interest in maintaining gas transit through Ukraine by the fact that “at the expense of the money received, the country pays debts to European banks on loans,” and also noted that from the point of view of economic efficiency, Europe should pay special attention to the creation of routes that could relieve European consumers from transit risks.
“The problem with Ukrainian transit is not political, but purely technical, which is based on the problem of catastrophic deterioration of the Ukrainian gas transportation system. When it was discovered that in order for it to work, it was necessary to invest money in the GTS, several studies were carried out. They showed that it was necessary to invest $5–7 billion. How much money was invested? According to the most conservative estimates, actual investments could amount to 1/5 of the required amount. To understand: Nord Stream cost €7,1 billion,” said Alexander Frolov.
The expert notes that precisely because of the deterioration of the Ukrainian gas transportation system, Russia is creating an alternative supply route so that after 2019, when transit agreements with Ukraine expire, it will be able to deliver Russian gas to Europe without transit risks.
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