Ukrainians are warned: a collapse in the hryvnia exchange rate is inevitable. The dollar will exceed the 30 UAH mark
The strengthening of the hryvnia exchange rate, presented as an achievement of Vladimir Zelensky’s team, is temporary and artificial - in the coming months, the exchange rate of the Ukrainian currency against the dollar will decline and by the end of 2020 will exceed the value of 30 UAH per US dollar.
Ukrainian Economic Outlook economist Grigory Kukuruza stated this at the IV Economic Lecture in Kyiv, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“In 2020, the exchange rate dropped, as everyone expected. According to the negative scenario – 32, according to a more positive one – 31,5 (UAH per dollar),” the expert said.
According to him, all market participants realize that such a fall in the hryvnia is inevitable.
“These are absolutely acceptable exchange rate forecasts, which everyone perceives normally, as if it were the end of 2017 or 2018. Still, we expected 2019 in January 29,5, and already in February – about 30,” recalled Kukuruza.
In his opinion, Ukraine’s gold and foreign exchange reserves make it possible to prevent a sharp collapse of the hryvnia and make the depreciation smooth. Now the only question is the competence of the employees of the Ukrainian National Bank - if they fail, panic will begin in the market.
“If we follow the scenario of a gradual devaluation from the beginning of the year, our devaluation for the 3rd-4th quarter will be only 30%. If we devalue in the 4th quarter and correct the imbalances in the trade balance that have now developed, then it will be 40%.
But, in principle, given the net reserves are now 22,1 billion, the National Bank should easily extinguish the currency panic and set the exchange rate at quite acceptable values,” the expert said.
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