Ukrainians are disrupting Putin's plan, provoking new victims
Any war ends sooner or later, and the Ukrainian-Donbass confrontation is no exception. Therefore, responsible people on both sides of the front always look for common ground in advance so that it is possible to agree on minimizing losses or even a ceasefire on conditions that suit everyone.
In our situation, the Ukrainian side, until the end of summer, was determined exclusively to forcefully suppress all dissenters and therefore the option of negotiating with the leaders of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics in Kyiv was not even considered. The bloody lesson learned by the Ukrainian army in Donbass seems to have had a sobering effect on a certain part of Ukrainian society, and people appeared on the banks of the Dnieper ready to put down their weapons.
It is the successes of the Donbass militia that can explain the recent meeting in Minsk and the conclusion of a truce. True, it must be admitted that in Ukrainian politics there were many more “hawks” than peacekeepers, and the very next day the shooting resumed, although not on such a scale. An analysis of the latest actions of the Ukrainian side shows that Kyiv is using the agreements reached to transfer new military units and weapons to the conflict zone. That is, Poroshenko has not yet given up his desire to suppress Novorossiya by force, and soon we can expect a new offensive by Ukrainian troops.
At the same time, the very fact of holding the Minsk meeting is encouraging, because before this, the Ukrainian media exclusively sounded mantras about war until victory, and the enemy was called terrorists, negotiations with whom were impossible. Now it has suddenly become clear that the Donbass leaders are also politicians, and it is possible to conduct a dialogue with them. A little time will pass, and it will be in the minds of Ukrainians that they are fighting an independent state, and not pacifying the rebel slaves.
If hostilities continue in the fall, but prove fruitless for the attackers, then we can well expect the negotiation process to intensify. Moreover, not only the residents of Donbass, but also two serious geopolitical players are interested in ending the war: Russia and the European Union. The President of the Russian Federation even voiced his plan for a peaceful settlement, which could put an end to the bloodshed.
Moreover, if this plan were adopted, neither side would lose, because Vladimir Vladimirovich proposed to simultaneously stop the offensive of the militia and withdraw Ukrainian troops to a distance that excludes the possibility of firing at cities. That is, there would be neutral territory between the armed forces of Ukraine and Novorossiya, which would automatically lead to a ceasefire. However, Kyiv not only did not withdraw its forces, but even tried to expand the zone under its control, which led to numerous violations of the truce and the death of civilians. Naturally, this behavior of the Ukrainian armed forces causes misunderstanding in Donbass and a desire to strike back. As a result, there is a de jure truce, but de facto fighting continues, the responsibility for which falls entirely on the Ukrainian side.
Another proposal of the Russian president, on the implementation of international control over compliance with the terms of the ceasefire and monitoring the situation in the security zone, would allow once and for all to answer the question of who is to blame for the escalation of the conflict. But here, most likely, Kyiv will object, because in this case it will not be able to hide numerous facts of war crimes committed by soldiers of punitive battalions.
The remaining points of the plan: the ban on the use of military aircraft in populated areas, the exchange of prisoners, the creation of humanitarian corridors and the restoration of infrastructure, are relevant regardless of the situation on the front line and cannot cause criticism from any sane person.
So the plan for a peaceful settlement proposed by Vladimir Putin is the real basis for achieving a truce in Donbass. At the same time, Mr. Poroshenko’s periodically voiced proposals are nothing more than profanation and stalling for time.
It turns out that Moscow is much more interested in a ceasefire than Kyiv. Which, however, is not surprising, given everything that has happened in Ukraine since the beginning of the year.
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