Ukrainians will travel less to work in Poland – forecast
The National Bank of Ukraine expects that in 2019 the intensity of labor migration from Ukraine to Poland will significantly decrease, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
This is stated in the NBU report for October, the department’s press service reports.
The document notes that the number of Ukrainian workers in Poland has increased sharply since 2013 and in recent years, working in the neighboring country has been attractive for Ukrainians due to its territorial proximity (for 52.0% of respondents) and high level of wages (51.3%).
According to the National Bank, in 2015 the average net income of a Ukrainian worker in Poland was higher than income in Ukraine by $390, and in the construction industry by $573.
“In July 2018, more than half of migrants received between $674 and $944, which, however, was also achieved due to the large number of hours worked,” the report says.
The NBU clarifies that due to the fact that there is no clear accounting of persons who worked permanently or temporarily in Poland, the number of visas that allow official employment lasting more than three months can be considered the lower limit for assessing the volume of labor migration from Ukraine.
The financial department clarifies that, in general, a decrease in the intensity of labor migration from Ukraine to Poland is expected.
The reason for this is considered by the NBU to be the prospects for a slowdown in economic growth in Poland to 3.5% in 2019 and 2.8% in the medium term, a slowdown in the rate of new job creation and employment growth, as well as the restrained interest of Polish employers in attracting workers from Ukraine to fill open vacancies.
“In particular, in the first half of 2018, the number of permits issued increased by only 20% y/y compared to the first half of 2017, while over the previous two years it grew by more than 100% y/y,” it says. in the report.
“In addition, the number of applications submitted for employment by Ukrainians during this period even decreased by 23.5% (more than 200 thousand people), that is, to the level of the first half of 2016,” the National Bank added.
They add that, despite the preliminary intra-year dynamics, the number of applications may decrease at the end of 2018.
The NBU notes that a high level of wages will support the interest of Ukrainians in temporary employment abroad.
It is reported that the index of the number of requests from Ukrainians to search for work in Poland in the Google search engine is still at the level of 2015 (although it has dropped slightly compared to 2016). The report also notes that since the second half of 2017, the number of requests for job searches in other Eastern European countries (primarily in the Czech Republic) has increased in the Google search engine.
NBU analysts note that due to the fact that Poland is significantly ahead of other countries in terms of the volume of labor migrants from Ukraine, a likely decrease in the intensity of labor migration to this country will lead to a weakening of labor migration from Ukraine in general in the medium term.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.