Ukraine and Belarus are facing the threat of an outflow of entire families to Poland
Regardless of the results of the second round of presidential elections in Poland, Ukraine and Belarus will face similar problems that will turn into a migration challenge for these countries.
Belarusian political scientist Igor Tyshkevich, who lives in Kyiv, spoke about this in his video blog, the PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
According to him, each candidate has a chance in the second round.
“If we talk about foreign policy in the eastern direction, Belarus-Ukraine, in Duda’s program there is not a word about either Ukraine or Belarus. On the other hand, since this is a representative of Law and Solidarity, it is worth turning to the PiS election program, where, on the one hand, support for Ukraine is declared, but on the other, if you look at the program itself, the word Russia appears much more often.
At the same time, there is a separate section called “Reset of relations with the Russian Federation,” which says that there were different historical periods between the countries, but as of today, Poland must develop its own more rational policy towards the Russian Federation. For both Belarus and Ukraine, on the one hand, this is a chance to become mediators, on the other hand, this is quite a serious danger,” notes Tyshkevich.
“Trzaskowski published his program, in it at least there is a mention, including cooperation with Ukraine and Belarus, which says that Ukraine as a developed state is very, very important for Poland, and on the other hand, in parallel with this, it is in second place issue of cooperation with Belarus, Trzaskowski believes that Poland should provide support to Belarus in carrying out economic and political reforms: “We will always support our Belarusian neighbors in building a strong economy and a democratic state” - economics comes first, politics comes second. That is, this is also a manifestation of a real politician.
If we talk about relations with Russia, then the program itself indicates that Russia is, on the one hand, a threat due to its aggressive policy, that is, the war in Georgia and Ukraine is recalled. But on the other hand, they talk about a deep economic crisis in the Russian Federation itself and that Poles and Russians are supposedly close to each other, and thus the president also expects a reset of relations with the Russian Federation,” the political scientist added.
“What could be the conclusion for the Belarusian and Ukrainian elites: on the one hand, both candidates declare, in principle, maintaining the good neighbor policy and even strengthening it, one is more towards Ukraine, the other towards Belarus, but that’s already a matter their programs, both states remain quite important for Poland. At the same time, for both Belarus and Ukraine, these are migration challenges, not from the point of view of the outflow of workers, but from the point of view of the outflow of entire families, that is, this means both workers and their children, and the absence of transfers in the future.” , concluded Tyshkevich.
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