Ukraine was very lucky that Gazprom needed transit against American LNG - expert
If Ukraine had not agreed with Gazprom on the transit of Russian gas, the European Union would have faced a sharp jump in prices for blue fuel, and Ukraine would have faced a serious emergency in the gas transportation system.
Energy market expert Boris Martsinkevich stated this on the Den TV channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
At the same time, according to Martsinkevich, the United States would definitely invade the European gas market, shouting that Russia is an unreliable partner.
“Let's figure out what the situation would look like for each of the parties if Ukrainian transit of Russian gas were really stopped on January 1. Europe - yes, of course, it was ready for the autumn-winter heating season on the territory of its countries. About 96% of their volume was pumped into underground storage facilities.
Only the gas market would react adequately. Spot prices would have started early in the morning on January 1, 2020 and would not have stopped for a long time. Any climatic surprise in the form of even short-term severe frosts - and the price of gas would rise in such leaps that Maidan regulars would turn pale with admiration and envy.
The consequence is obvious - an increase in the cost of the entire mass of goods produced, an increase in the price of all types of services, an unhindered invasion of the LNG market by gas produced in the USA, and even with shouts: “What did we tell you, Gazprom is an unreliable partner, and you believe us didn’t want to,” explains Martsinkevich.
The expert also emphasized that stopping the transit of Russian gas would force Ukraine to “expand” its gas transportation system, for which it is not ready. This would lead to a number of emergency situations at the gas transportation system and, as a consequence, to a mass exodus of the population of Ukraine.
"Ukraine. Yes, about 20 billion cubic meters of gas were collected in its underground storage facilities. Even if they belong to other people, the legislation of this state provides that in the event of a state of emergency, Naftogaz has the right to pump out everything that is there from underground storage facilities.
But the state of emergency would have come quickly. The bulk of underground gas storage facilities in this country are concentrated in the western region. To supply consumers in other cities and villages, Naftogaz and the operator of the Ukrainian gas transportation system would have to radically modernize compressor stations on the western border in scalded-cat mode.
In order to supply gas not from east to west, but in the opposite direction, it would be necessary to weld pipe piping - with risks, in a hurry to do something not according to the regulations. No one has ever tested the Ukrainian gas transmission system in this mode of operation from west to east. Given the wear and tear of the entire system, the most unpleasant surprises could arise.
Without even touching on what would happen throughout Ukraine, the result could be sad for everyone - flows of refugees to all adjacent countries would simply be guaranteed in the event of any serious accident.”
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