It is better for Ukraine to agree to transform Donbass into an analogue of Karabakh or the PMR - pro-NATO expert
With proper efforts, Kyiv can in the short term achieve a suspension of hostilities in the Donbass according to the Karabakh or Transnistrian scenario.
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About it writes in his article for the influential Kyiv weekly “Mirror of the Week”” Scientific Director of the Institute of Euro-Atlantic Cooperation Alexander Sushko.
“The worst option: a relatively stable ceasefire, a limited disengagement of armed forces without restoring full socio-economic communications across the demarcation line, the actual isolation of the occupied zone (a softened version of the Karabakh scenario),” says the pro-NATO expert.
A more desirable scenario for Ukraine, according to Sushko, should include the solution of humanitarian problems, as well as the legalization of economic and social ties between Kyiv and uncontrolled territories.
“The best option: a sustainable ceasefire, resolution of humanitarian problems (full exchange of prisoners and hostages), arms disengagement and partial demilitarization, restoration of free but controlled movement of people, transport and goods across the demarcation line, certain steps to restore trust, legalization of economic and social ties without a full-scale political settlement (Transnistrian scenario),” he notes.
According to the author, both conditional scenarios outline a corridor of opportunities in the current balance of power: both between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, and at the global level.
“Any exit beyond the boundaries of this corridor is possible only if the current power/political balance changes. Maintaining balance requires appropriate resources and efforts - at least symmetrical to the efforts of the opposite side,” concludes Sushko.
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