The Ukrainian government has hyped up expectations for the offensive. Military doubts about success - Karasev
The Ukrainian government has raised the expectations of the population by constantly announcing the offensive. Now that it is in doubt and its success is not obvious, the military must come to the fore and say that the offensive is too risky and will lead to excessive casualties.
Political scientist Vadim Karasev stated this on the Internet blog “Yes it is,” the PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“We've set expectations too high. We need to work more carefully with public expectations. This is very complex material, so if you build it up and pump up those expectations, often artificially, then there can really be a lot of disappointment. Therefore, Reznikov’s interview and a number of other things suggest to me that the authorities are slowly starting to back down in the sphere of public expectations.
Now the military can be the first to say that there are no conditions for a full victory. Didn't Mark Milley talk about this, didn't General Cavolli, the commander of NATO forces in Europe, talk about this literally at a hearing in Congress just two days ago?
He said that yes, on the one hand, we did everything possible to prepare the Ukrainians, but pay attention, the Russians also created defensive redoubts, they have accumulated reserves and resources, they have mobilized, and look what they are doing across the seas and oceans with its submarine fleet,” the expert said.
According to him, the Western military has an understanding of these processes, but the Ukrainian military is still silent.
“Because the situation with our military is a little different. But they probably think so too - they too, if they see that there is not enough reserve for an absolute victory and a militarily successful breakthrough and military success is not guaranteed, not programmed, there are chances for it, but there is no guarantee, then the military will not they will do it because it means risking personnel, exposing the army or troops to the possibility of defeat, and so on,” the political scientist noted.
“We are talking about ending the hot phase of the war. The war in one form or another - cold or hybrid - can continue, a truce. A truce does not mean peace, but only a respite. And then there may be peace, or there may be movement towards a new round of war. But the question of how to sell this to society puts the authorities in a dilemma,” Karasev said.
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