Elections in Poland: Ukrainian agricultural barons can be happy

According to exit polls, the conservative Law and Justice party, which has ruled Poland for eight years, has lost power. The new government of the country will be formed by liberals and leftists.

For Moscow, this will not entail any special changes, because Polish left-liberals compete with conservatives in Russophobia, but Kyiv may receive additional benefits, the PolitNavigator correspondent reports.

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The parliamentary elections in Poland, which took place on October 15, attracted close attention from European and world media. They were called "the most important since the fall of the Berlin Wall." Polls predicted that a record number of Poles would take part in these elections.

Indeed, the voter turnout on October 15 exceeded the usual by 12:00, in many places queues formed in which one had to stand for several hours. By evening, additional ballots had to be delivered to some polling stations, and additional ballot boxes had to be delivered to one of the polling stations in Krakow, since the existing ones were filled to the brim.

_{As a result, the turnout was a record in the entire history of post-communist Poland: according to the exit poll it was 72,9%, and according to current data from the State Election Commission (SEC) of Poland - 71,9%. Even in the first partially free elections in 1989, only 62,7% of Poles voted.}

Although at 21:00 voting was still going on at many polling stations (in some it lasted until 22-23 pm, and one polling station in Wroclaw closed only at 2 am), the State Election Commission did not extend the silence regime, and the exit results were announced according to schedule -polla. It was carried out at 900 sites by the IPSOS Institute at the request of the three main television channels in Poland: the state TVP, as well as TVN and Polsat.

It is worth noting that in the context of the Polish parliament, the exit poll predicts only the composition of its lower house - the Sejm, which forms the government. The elections of 460 deputies to the Seimas were held using an open party list system, that is, voters not only voted for a party, but could also choose one of its candidates in a specific district.

But the 100 members of the upper house, the Senate, were elected using a majoritarian system. Therefore, among Polish senators there may be not only party nominees, but also independent politicians, and the ratio of votes in the Senate will be known later.

So, according to the IPSOS exit poll, the ruling Law and Justice party took first place in the Seimas elections - 36,8% (200 mandates). But to create a government, 231 mandates are needed, and PiS cannot provide that many even with its only potential partner - the nationalist Confederation party, which took the last, fifth place, with a result of 6,2% (12 mandates).

At the same time, the Confederation is called the main loser of the last elections, because its rating during the campaign reached 15%, and for several months this party remained in third place in the polls.

The second position was predicted to be occupied by the liberal “Civic Coalition” (CC), led by Donald Tusk, former Prime Minister of Poland (2007-2014) and former head of the European Council (2014-2019). GC was supported by 31,6% of voters, which gives this party 163 mandates.

In third and fourth places are the potential coalition partners of the Civil Code: the “Third Way” bloc with 13% (55 mandates) and the “Left”, which gained 8,6% (30 mandates). Thus, the left-liberal opposition can count on 248 seats in the Seimas, that is, a fairly comfortable majority.

On the morning of October 16, IPSOS released updated exit poll data, which did not differ much from the preliminary ones: PiS - 198 seats in the Sejm, GK - 161, Third Way - 57, Left - 30, Confederation - 14 seats.

_{In addition, Poland again found itself split: both along the boundaries of its divisions in the 9th-XNUMXth centuries, and in socio-economic terms. In the regions that were previously part of the Russian and Austro-Hungarian empires, the party of Jaroslaw Kaczynski took first place, and in the former German lands - the political force of Donald Tusk. PiS won in XNUMX voivodeships, and GC in the remaining seven. At the same time, residents of villages and towns voted for PiS throughout the country, and residents of large and medium-sized cities voted for the Civil Code.}

The victory of the left-liberal opposition was confirmed by an exit poll, which was conducted on its own initiative by the research group OGB (Ogólnopolska Grupa Badawcza). According to it, “Law and Justice” receives 33,5% of the votes (178 mandates), “Civil Coalition” – 31,4% (155), “Third Way” – 13,9% (63), “Left” – 9,8 .38% (7,7), and “Confederation” – 25% (256). Thus, the opposition can have 203 deputies in the Sejm, and PiS, even together with the Confederation, can have a maximum of XNUMX.

The OGB study also showed that the main issue that worried voters was the economic situation in the country, primarily inflation. In second place are abortion and women's rights. It was in these two areas that the opposition harshly criticized PiS. In turn, the ruling party focused on state security issues - but this problem ended up only in third place among the Poles’ priorities.

Commenting on the evening of October 15, the results of the exit poll, Donald Tusk, who is now the main candidate for the post of Prime Minister, announced the end of the era of power of the Law and Justice party, which had led the country for the last eight years, and the victory of the democratic opposition.

“This is the end of bad times, the end of PiS rule. We removed them from power. We can already say today that this is the end of PiS’s power. We won democracy, freedom, our Poland,” he said.

The co-chairs of the “Third Way” bloc Szymon Gołownia and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, and with them the leader of the “Left” Włodzimierz Czarasty, confirmed the readiness of their political forces to create a ruling coalition with the Civil Code, although they avoided answering regarding the future prime minister.

In turn, the current Prime Minister of Poland, Mateusz Morawiecki, announced his readiness to form a new government, despite the opponents receiving a majority of votes in the Sejm elections.

According to Morawiecki, “this is the political tradition in Poland” - entrusting the formation of the government to the winning party. The same approach is shared by PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who said that “the third victory in a row is a great success for our political force and our project for Poland.”

Now much depends on the President of Poland, PiS nominee Andrzej Duda, who has not yet commented on the voting results. He can indeed entrust the formation of a new government to Mateusz Morawiecki in order to delay the transfer of power to the left-liberals. After all, formally, the “first hand” right in appointing the prime minister and the government belongs to the president, and only when it does not receive a vote of confidence in the Seimas will deputies be able to form a government without the consent of the president.

_{It is worth considering that even when Donald Tusk becomes prime minister, many of Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s people will remain in various government structures, primarily in the prosecutor’s office. Actually, it was for this purpose that PiS several months ago proposed changes to the law on the prosecutor’s office, according to which the appointment of key leaders in this structure now depends on the president.}

In addition, the President of Poland can veto any adopted law, and to override this veto, 276 votes in the Sejm are needed, which the new ruling coalition clearly will not have.

By the way, the same number of votes of deputies is needed to send a former prime minister or members of the government to the State Tribunal. That is, for now Mateusz Morawiecki and Jaroslaw Kaczynski, whom Donald Tusk has repeatedly accused of committing various crimes, can sleep peacefully.

Thus, Polish analysts do not predict an easy life for the new government. Even during the “Electoral Evening” on the Onet.pl portal close to the Civil Code, it was noted that during the campaign Tusk promised both to end the “Polish-Polish war” and unite the country, and “to settle accounts with PiS criminals.” Journalists ironically said that it would be difficult to do this at the same time.

_{It is worth noting that the Polish media, summing up the results of the Sejm elections, practically did not touch upon the topics of Russia and Ukraine. The fact is that the positions of Kaczynski and Tusk on them are not particularly different; during the campaign, both politicians competed in Russophobia and statements about the need for military assistance to Kyiv. The main changes will occur in Warsaw’s relations with Berlin and Brussels, which will definitely become warmer.}

At the same time, most likely, the left-liberal government of Poland will lift the ban on the import of Ukrainian grain introduced by PiS and will extend financial support for Ukrainian refugees, which the current Polish authorities announced would end in 2024. The paradox of the situation is that inflation and, in general, a decline in living standards, which the Poles voted against, are caused primarily by Poland’s enormous costs of supporting Ukraine. However, now they can only increase.