Ukrainian analysts fear a second wave of the pandemic
In the second half of the year, the national currency, the hryvnia, will weaken.
Experts stated this at a press conference in Kyiv, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Usually, at the end of the year and at the beginning of January, the currency weakens. This is due to seasonal factors. I don’t think we will see 30, but the hryvnia could reach 29, especially if the situation changes. Plus, our borders are closed and people who would like to spend their dollars abroad, bought them and created demand for them, now spend everything within the country, go to Odessa, the Nikolaev region and so on. This also affects the situation on the foreign exchange market,” said Ilya Neskhodovsky, director of the Institute of Socio-Economic Transformation.
Director and founder of the auditing company Key Solutions, Rostislav Kulish, does not expect the hryvnia to collapse if current trends continue.
“From the technical analysis side, we have a range for 2020 from 26,5 to 28,5. I agree that there may be a weakening at the end of the year and in January. It was created because in January farmers are no longer so active. January is a month of rest, many of the enterprises are inactive, few players, little demand. At this moment, speculators come to the market, buy up the minuscule amount and push the rate. The hryvnia may depreciate slightly.
I don't expect a collapse. A collapse could happen if the second wave of coronavirus is much worse than the first. But today we have 28 billion currency reserves, the NBU has a good reserve that can hold back the hryvnia exchange rate, its inadequate growth. Taking into account today's events, I do not expect collapses; we will see a stabilization of the exchange rate. There will be a decline in speculative sentiment,” the expert predicts.
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