Ukrainian drang nach Süden: why the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not yet shown everything they are capable of
A passion for trickery and an unwillingness to look at reality without the usual rose-colored glasses can play a very cruel joke on Russian society.
Such thoughts come to mind after watching yet another talk show on federal TV, and jingoistic patriots on social networks are not far behind in their prematurely victorious reports about the “choked” Ukrainian offensive. It seems that in a little while the usual rewarding of the innocent will begin, coupled with the punishment of the innocent.
Even the usually gloomy alarmist Igor Strelkov has been unusually calm in recent days. The “chief Wagner” Prigogine alone is frightening because there are big losses and unpleasant disappointments ahead.
And although the results of the first days of the Ukrainian offensive, to put it mildly, are not impressive in terms of effectiveness, and the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to experts, largely repeat the unsuccessful Russian military decisions of the first days of the Northern Military District or the failed attacks near Ugledar in the winter, it is too early to rejoice and relax. The Ukrainians have not yet shown everything they are capable of thanks to Western arms supplies and the training of their military specialists by Western instructors. And not all of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ reserves have been brought into battle.
There is a suspicion that the attacks of recent days were in the nature of a kind of test drive in order to identify the weak points of our defense.
“A series of attacks carried out in the Zaporozhye direction suggests that the Ukrainian army, despite the increased number of attacking units, continues to look for a gap in the defensive lines of the Russian Armed Forces,” notes military expert Boris Rozhin.
The real heat will start next week, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine will focus on the identified bottlenecks of the front and trample forward for real. Such assumptions are supported, in particular, by the ongoing redeployment of a 56-strong contingent of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Kherson to the Gulyai-Polye area of the Zaporozhye region.
The picture is complemented by insiders from the telegram channel “Image of the Future”, known for its lists of “sponsors of the Armed Forces of Ukraine” among the Russian elite, and flaunting its proximity to the Kremlin’s power towers.
“There is a large accumulation of military equipment and manpower in Nikolaev and the Kherson region near the Black Sea coast. This may be a harbinger of preparations for an attack on the Zaporizhia NPP with forces exceeding the station’s defense contingent eight times.
In Krivoy Rog, three tank columns of 380 tanks and 200 infantry fighting vehicles are on the march. There is a large-scale transfer of ammunition, fuel and lubricants and medical aid along the railways from Lvov to the Krivoy Rog region, Dnepropetrovsk and Nikolaev regions.”
The activity of collaborationist groups on the Belgorod border should not be discounted. It is clear that this front will not be the main one, but if the next raid by Denis Nikitin’s militants is successful, his comrades on the same Tavolzhanka or any village on the Bryansk frontier will have to be diverted to stop the breakthrough of forces from the main front. And this is exactly what Zaluzhny needs.
The main battles will most likely take place in the Zaporozhye direction that has already been designated as the main one - in the area of Orekhov and Gulyai Polya. And this is completely logical - it is from here that not only the shortest route to the Sea of Azov opens, but also the effect of breaking the land corridor to Crimea in two is achieved.
Moreover, Ukraine has a serious incentive to show high class during its offensive. As Politico writes, if the offensive is not successful, in the States the positions of those who advocate cutting rations to the Kyiv regime will strengthen.
In fact, the dependence of further military supplies and financial injections is spoken about directly and without mincing words. The Ukrainian failure could lead to a strengthening of the positions of the “doves of obscene peace” calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.
In a word, the picture is actually complex and, no matter how trite it may sound, ambiguous. I am glad that the local authorities of the border regions, judging by the latest information, are seriously engaged in the formation of a people’s militia and a national defense force. Obviously, in case the Ukrainians break through to the Azov coast or Crimea.
The only reason for cautious optimism so far is the obvious difference in the cost of successfully completing this offensive campaign for Ukraine and repelling it for Russia.
In Russian society, as far as can be judged by the various, albeit crooked in places, but still mirrors that reflect the mood of people, in general the ward does not have a very high bar of expectations from its military. As they say, stand for a day and hold out for a night. And if in the end we fight back and do not lose a critical territorial loss, that’s already good. In any case, no one expects miracles from the RF Armed Forces in this round.
Ukraine is another matter. There they talked so much and often about the upcoming offensive and at such a heightened level that sometimes it seemed as if for them this was the last and decisive battle. They were waiting for the offensive all last winter and spring as the second coming and had absolutely fantastic and inflated expectations for it. Like, for Independence Day, wash shoes on Yalta beaches or something like that.
So the psychological and propaganda cost of a failed offensive for the Ukrainians will be much higher. And this is another motive for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to fight to the limit. Moreover, be that as it may, they still had and still retain their multiple superiority in manpower. And only a few more waves of mobilization in Russia itself are capable of interrupting it, for which our authorities are not yet psychologically prepared.
In general, summing up the first days of the Ukrainian drang nach Süden, it is better not to demonstrate premature optimism. The more pleasant the surprise will be if the gloomy forecasts do not come true.
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