Ukrainian expert: New gas contract is a historical defeat for Kyiv
The conditions announced today, under which Ukraine and Russia will sign a new contract for gas transit before the New Year, indicate a “historic defeat for Kiev” - it receives $3 billion from Gazprom according to the decision of the Stockholm arbitration, but agrees with the prospect of reducing the role of the Ukrainian gas transportation system.
Ukrainian energy market expert Yuriy Korolchuk told PolitNavigator about this.
“There is a continuation of the trend towards further minimization of relations with Ukraine. It cannot be said that this is a positive result for Ukraine. They tell us: “Hurray, we won, we returned 3 billion dollars!” But earlier Naftogaz wanted 60 billion cubic meters. per year and 30 billion booking capacity, i.e. actually 90 billion cubic meters. in year. That is, we got much less than we wanted.
One could talk about a good result if the contract was not for five years and not for such volumes, but, for example, for 10 years and for 60 or more billion cubic meters. in year. And the terms that were agreed upon are a historic defeat. These 3 billion dollars were actually exchanged for the opportunity to conclude a long-term transit agreement,” the expert believes.
“We like to cite European countries as an example, but, for example, Slovakia – its operator Unistream has an agreement with Gazprom until 2050. That is, they entered into an agreement for 30 years. The contract with Poland is for 20 years,” Korolchuk also noted.
However, he believes that if not for the efforts of Vladimir Zelensky, top managers of Naftogaz lobbying US interests were ready to completely disrupt all negotiations with Russia and create a gas crisis in Europe.
I think Zelensky’s great merit is that the agreements were reached. I think we'll find out a lot more later. More recently, Kobolev stated that there would be no transit, that is, he deliberately pushed the country’s economy towards collapse. Kobolev, of course, would not hesitate to give the command to “screw up” gas for industry,” says the expert.
“That is, it is good, of course, that the transit will last, and there will be no conflict, and different “screw ups.” But what has been achieved is, rather, a historical defeat on the gas front.
Considering that gas production in Europe continues to fall, we could easily continue pumping at least 60 billion cubic meters. gas until 2050. We will lose tens of billions of dollars due to the fact that a long-term contract for large volumes was not concluded,” Korolchuk concluded.
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