Ukrainian expert declared a “Pyrrhic victory” in the gas dispute with Russia
The announced terms of the new gas contract with Russia are a “Pyrrhic victory” for Ukraine.
Ukrainian pro-Western energy market expert Mikhail Gonchar writes about this in his blog, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“If what happened in Berlin and Minsk is a victory, then it is pyrrhic. Another such “victory” in the form of the signing of a new transit contract on December 29, and we will be left without transit after 2021, although from a formal point of view, transit will exist.
It will only exist in the volumes that Gazprom will need to get through the winter peaks of demand in Europe.
The signed protocol looks like some kind of compromise. But only at first glance. This document, rather, serves as a camouflage function for the true intentions of the Russian side,” the author shares his concerns.
The only thing that can be considered a victory is the agreement on the payment of $3 billion by Gazprom to Naftogaz according to the decision of the Stockholm arbitration, everything else looks problematic for Kyiv.
“It is clear from the protocol that the Russian side wants to include in the contract an algorithm where transit in its current form will last one year, until, according to Gazprom and its German henchmen, they can resolve problematic issues with Nord Stream 2, and so on.” , in fact, under one pretext or another, Gazprom will withdraw from the transit contract. So, in fact, we can get a 1-year contract under the guise of a 5-year contract. And it can be 5 years only in case of permanent problems of “Northern Side-2,” writes Mikhail Gonchar.
In addition, Ukraine abandoned other lawsuits for a much larger amount.
“One of the most problematic court decisions for Gazprom concerned our internal decision on a $6,5 billion fine for monopolizing transit. This decision was made by the AMCU and supported by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Well, here you don’t need to be a great specialist to understand that only Gazprom operates at the entrance to the Ukrainian gas transportation system. And this is a monopoly position. While there are opportunities in Russia itself, there are other gas suppliers there (Rosneft or NOVATEK), and there is Central Asian gas, which could also transit through Russia to Ukraine, and further to Europe.
There are also two claims that have not yet been considered in the Stockholm arbitration, for almost $12 billion. They relate to additional compensation by Gazprom for failure to fulfill the current transit contract. The money that was awarded to Naftogaz in the decision dated February 28, 2018 is only part of the compensation for the transit failure of Gazprom in the amount of at least 110 billion cubic meters. m annually. In principle, it is believed that of the total declared amount of claims of almost $12 billion in new claims, at least $2 billion was a guaranteed gain for Naftogaz, which they are now inclined to refuse.
It turns out that there can be no more lawsuits from Naftogaz against Gazprom. Then this, again, does not work in our favor. What if Gazprom does some tricks again?” writes Mikhail Gonchar.
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