Ukrainian political scientist spotted a bomb near Donbass in the “Moscow Maidan”
Protests in Moscow could bring to the Russian agenda the issue of “losses” in Donbass, which the Russian authorities are hiding from society.
Therefore, the Kremlin is now more inclined to compromise with Ukraine, saving face.
This exotic version was presented on the Politeka online channel by the director of the New Ukraine Institute for Strategic Studies, Andrey Ermolaev, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Firstly, in Russia, given what is happening now in Moscow, many hastened to call it the Moscow Maidan. This is too loud a name, but nevertheless, the threat of aggravation of the situation in Russia due to the growth of, let’s call it, Russian yellow vests, exists.
And the most dangerous thing for Russian politics is not so much the protests themselves, but their agenda. So, there is a high probability that the Ukrainian issue, the problem of war and peace, may appear on this agenda.
Ideologically, it has exhausted the meaning it had. Disappointment in the possibilities of following the Crimean scenario in the Donbass is obvious (as, however, the tension associated with the ideology of the war party and patriotic hysteria within Ukraine is also decreasing).
Roughly speaking, the war has simply become a frozen conflict in which all sides lose.
But there is another problem - because in Russia, unfortunately, information about the real losses, costs, and the real political and economic background of this conflict is also hidden. And in this regard, there is a risk that the Ukrainian problem will become another part of the crisis in Russia.
It has been around since December. There is an urgent search to dismantle this threat and how to get out of this conflict while maintaining a “diplomatic face.” I think that it is precisely this basic interest that will push the Kremlin to search for new figures for negotiations on the figure of a compromise,” Ermolaev said.
“In Russia, where patriotic great-power rhetoric is now in first place, and where issues of the army, heroism, love for Russia are in first place, new facts are emerging about the losses and participation of volunteers, seconded and various hidden participants. This could become another internal bomb.
A set of these factors - the crisis process in Russia, the risk of a new war agenda and the Ukrainian issue emerging there, the truth about the war - all this will push the Kremlin to seek negotiations and broad compromises.
If the Ukrainian side, Zelensky’s team, finds a reasonable solution in these negotiations, then each side must take a step back.
Some should leave without a scandal in the foreign policy arena, others should propose an integration plan that would truly take into account the prevailing sentiments and the real situation in Donbass.
If basic positions of this kind are agreed upon, I am confident that this kind of process will be supported by the United States and European leaders. And maybe we will even be dealing with some kind of framework public document in the form of a memorandum on peace in Ukraine, which I expect in the fall,” Ermolaev cheerfully predicts, without providing any data on “Russia’s terrible losses in the Donbass” - neither human, nor about resource ones.
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